5 Moves the Giants Should Make
A wise man once said, “There's an old saying in Tennessee -- I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee -- that says, fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again.” (I don’t understand this quote but I might just be an idiot) C.C. Sabathia is so tantalizing. I was going to say the Giants should sign C.C. for $120 mil. Sign Adam Dunn to play first and trade Jonathan Sanchez for A-Rod. Then the absinthe wore off. The reality is the Giants are not World Series contenders heading into next season and probably not in 2010, either. Much has been said over the last couple of years about going with younger players and I’ve said this myself numerous times. But like the Giants, the free agent market has been lacking talented young position players for years. This limits the Giants options for upgrading the offense for the future, so I say sign some older guys to short deals while we wait Bumgarner, Alderson, Posey, Gillaspie, et al. Pitching and defense will be the key for the Giants to be competitive over the next two seasons. They have good pitching, but need to improve the defense. No contracts should be offered for more than three seasons to anybody
1) Sign Derek Lowe
He’s a sinkerball pitcher in a division with many HR unfriendly parks. He’s got a 2.17 ERA at AT&T the last three seasons(5 starts). At 35, he had a 3.24 ERA last year and should be open to three year contract offers. According to Baseball Reference’s Similarity Scores, four pitchers with Giants connections are listed (Don Robinson, Danny Darwin, Lindy McDaniel and Dick Tidrow).Don Robinson? Caveman? C’mon. You cannot argue that the Giants need less Caveman(s). The caveat to signing Lowe is that he’s waiting for Sabathia to sign a contract and set the market for pitchers and his agent is Scott Boras. Lowe could be contemplating a massive five year deal with a True Religion Jeans contract to boot. If that is the case, I take a flyer on Brad Penny.
2) Don’t trade Matt Cain
He’s younger than LinCYcum and his value is down after a bad luck season. Buy low, sell high, or something like that. He’s under Giant control for a few more years at a good price so there is no need to rush any trade. Trading him would mean the Giants are trying to win in 2009, which they should not be because they are not one player away from contending. Let things play out this season. We know he’s got potential, so wait to reap the benefits whether it’s for the Giants on the field or through a trade. If Cain was traded now, who would fill his spot in the rotation this season? Lowry? Misch? Please.
3) Sign Casey Blake
Look, there aren’t a lot of premier corner infielders on the free agent market. In fact, there is only one who is under 30, Texeira, and he’s going to be a pricey piece of pie. Sure, Adam Dunn is under 30 and he “could” play 1B, but he’s not the right fit for the Giants. Blake is old, 35, but he’s solid defensively and can swing the bat a little. His three year splits, .275/.346/.457. Again, his age will let the Giants offer a shorter deal, two or three years max, and Sandoval can play first base. I think Blake even played some first for the Dodgers last year, but I have to believe Blake at third and Sandoval at first is better than the other way around. Plus, Baseball Reference lists four(!) former ROTYs with matching similarity scores thru age 35: Chris Sabo, Ben Grieve, Marty Cordova AND Eric Hinske. That means something, right?
4) Trade Randy Winn/Sign Pat Burrell
Baggs talked to Sabean the other day and he doesn’t envision the Giants signing another outfielder, which is totally understandable. Can we give one back? Dave Roberts, anyone? Winn is in the last year of his contract and as a decent MLB outfielder making $8.25 mil the Giants should be able to move him. This one might not happen until summer. If the team could move Winn, that would open a space to bring in Burrell. Now, I’m not even close to ga-ga for Burrell. In fact, I’m much closer to whatever the opposite of ga-ga is about Burrell. The fact remains that the Giants cannot have a 3-4-5 of Rowand-Molina-Sandoval. Pat the Bat would strike out a ton of times, but he’d be at “home” and he can hit the ball really hard. Burrell is 31, so I wouldn’t want to see anything longer than three years. The silver lining of a recession is that guys who used to demand five year deals, and get them, will have to settle for three year deals.
5) Kick the tires on O-Dog
As of this minute, second base will be fought over by Eugenio Velez, Kevin Frandsen, Manny Burriss and whoever won the Play for the Giants Spring Training prize from the KNBR/BAYSHOF auction. Frandsen is the only one who “should” have a chance at earning the spot and he’s coming off a torn ACL. All the others need more seasoning, minor league seasoning. Orlando Hudson is an above average defender and a decent hitter. He’s 30 years old and has played more than 145 games only once in his six year career. He’s the best second base free agent this winter and he is likely going to be looking for a deal of more than three years. However, there is always a possibility he would be willing to settle for a short term deal if the price is right.
Monday, December 8, 2008
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Why you should NOT watch the 49ers in December
Why you should NOT watch the 49ers in December?
1. They are not going to make the playoffs
This statement might seem a little obvious but it needs to be said. There really is no point in watching a team with no chance of making the playoffs in December unless they are winless. (that’s right – I would rather watch the Lions than the Niners). In the past, you could view a strong end to the season as a reason to believe the team is going to carry the momentum into the following year. In the modern NFL, what a non-playoff team does in December has little to do with their record the following year. As a result, does it really matter if they go 0-4 or 4-0? Think about it.
2. The Vernon Davis Phenomenon
If I would have told you last year that Vernon Davis would surpass Jeremy Shocky as the most talked about mediocre player in the league you would have called me crazy. Well, we all know what has happened and I cannot stand it anymore. I don’t care if he is good or bad. I just want people to stop talking about him. Every time you watch a Niner game you will hear something about Vernon Davis. Why in the world are we still talking about this guy and why do fans continue to debate his value to the team!? Warriors’ fans no longer talk about Belinelli so why should Niners’ fans keep talking about Davis? The Vernon Davis talk should be enough for anyone to watch something else.
(Yes – I just compared Vernon Davis to Marco Belinelli.)
3. The Sell Out Uniforms
Remember that friend (“Joe”) you had in college who dressed like he was always going to a Pearl Jam concert – random gray tee-shirt, beat-up jeans, worn-in shoes, permanent 5 o’clock shadow and long hair. Joe was one of your best friends that you could always count on. Some of your best memories are drinking too much on Thursdays while playing Madden until 4 am. Needless to say you and Joe had some pretty good times together.
Those times could not last as you both graduated. Joe got consumed by his job that was more about statistics and turning a profit then what defense he was playing in Madden. The next thing you know Joe looks like he is getting paid to wear J. Crew (not to mention his “never-thought-possible” corporate haircut). No matter how much Madden you and Joe play together, it is really hard to remember the good old days because nothing about the Joe’s appearance reminds of the guy you once knew. Not only does he look like a complete sell out but also his Madden skills have diminished so considerably that he isn’t even fun to play anymore. As a result, you stop hanging out with Joe because you have all but forgotten the good old days.
13 years later
You hear a knock on your door and there is Joe looking like he use to. He has come to ask forgiveness for all the stupid things he has done over the last 13 years. You are so excited that the two of you go straight to the couch for a good old fashion Madden session. Joe’s game still leaves something to be desired but there is renewed hope for the future …
Until the Niners ask their fans for forgiveness and stop wearing those sell out uniforms - why keep watching them?
4. Offense?
The offensive line can’t block anybody. The wide receivers are completely overmatched. Shaun Hill is (to be nice) mediocre. Frank Gore never gets the ball because A) Mike Martz and the rest of the offensive brain trust have no idea what they are doing or B) the organization is saving is body from getting beaten down every Sunday. Either way, there is no reason to watch the Niners in December 2008.
5. The Draft is not the regular season
The idea of watching the Niners so you can see what draft pick they are going to have in April is just plain stupid. People make this argument all the time and I never understand what people are talking about. Furthermore, I don’t even know what exactly you want to happen. Rooting for a top-5 pick doesn’t make any sense because a top-5 player is rarely worth the money he gets paid. Rooting for a pick below 5 doesn’t make any sense because the pick is a toss-up and the money they save by not signing a top-5 pick goes straight into the pocket of Jed York. If you care about the 2009 Draft – watch ESPN in April not the Niners in December.
1. They are not going to make the playoffs
This statement might seem a little obvious but it needs to be said. There really is no point in watching a team with no chance of making the playoffs in December unless they are winless. (that’s right – I would rather watch the Lions than the Niners). In the past, you could view a strong end to the season as a reason to believe the team is going to carry the momentum into the following year. In the modern NFL, what a non-playoff team does in December has little to do with their record the following year. As a result, does it really matter if they go 0-4 or 4-0? Think about it.
2. The Vernon Davis Phenomenon
If I would have told you last year that Vernon Davis would surpass Jeremy Shocky as the most talked about mediocre player in the league you would have called me crazy. Well, we all know what has happened and I cannot stand it anymore. I don’t care if he is good or bad. I just want people to stop talking about him. Every time you watch a Niner game you will hear something about Vernon Davis. Why in the world are we still talking about this guy and why do fans continue to debate his value to the team!? Warriors’ fans no longer talk about Belinelli so why should Niners’ fans keep talking about Davis? The Vernon Davis talk should be enough for anyone to watch something else.
(Yes – I just compared Vernon Davis to Marco Belinelli.)
3. The Sell Out Uniforms
Remember that friend (“Joe”) you had in college who dressed like he was always going to a Pearl Jam concert – random gray tee-shirt, beat-up jeans, worn-in shoes, permanent 5 o’clock shadow and long hair. Joe was one of your best friends that you could always count on. Some of your best memories are drinking too much on Thursdays while playing Madden until 4 am. Needless to say you and Joe had some pretty good times together.
Those times could not last as you both graduated. Joe got consumed by his job that was more about statistics and turning a profit then what defense he was playing in Madden. The next thing you know Joe looks like he is getting paid to wear J. Crew (not to mention his “never-thought-possible” corporate haircut). No matter how much Madden you and Joe play together, it is really hard to remember the good old days because nothing about the Joe’s appearance reminds of the guy you once knew. Not only does he look like a complete sell out but also his Madden skills have diminished so considerably that he isn’t even fun to play anymore. As a result, you stop hanging out with Joe because you have all but forgotten the good old days.
13 years later
You hear a knock on your door and there is Joe looking like he use to. He has come to ask forgiveness for all the stupid things he has done over the last 13 years. You are so excited that the two of you go straight to the couch for a good old fashion Madden session. Joe’s game still leaves something to be desired but there is renewed hope for the future …
Until the Niners ask their fans for forgiveness and stop wearing those sell out uniforms - why keep watching them?
4. Offense?
The offensive line can’t block anybody. The wide receivers are completely overmatched. Shaun Hill is (to be nice) mediocre. Frank Gore never gets the ball because A) Mike Martz and the rest of the offensive brain trust have no idea what they are doing or B) the organization is saving is body from getting beaten down every Sunday. Either way, there is no reason to watch the Niners in December 2008.
5. The Draft is not the regular season
The idea of watching the Niners so you can see what draft pick they are going to have in April is just plain stupid. People make this argument all the time and I never understand what people are talking about. Furthermore, I don’t even know what exactly you want to happen. Rooting for a top-5 pick doesn’t make any sense because a top-5 player is rarely worth the money he gets paid. Rooting for a pick below 5 doesn’t make any sense because the pick is a toss-up and the money they save by not signing a top-5 pick goes straight into the pocket of Jed York. If you care about the 2009 Draft – watch ESPN in April not the Niners in December.
Why you should watch the 49ers in December
Why you should watch the 49ers in December.
1. The Singletary effect.
You’ve heard the refrain interim head coaches don’t succeed. What does that mean for Singletary? He’s definitely not the traditional interim head coach, but does that mean he’s the right fit for the permanent job? The last four weeks should provide insight into his capabilities as a head coach, so pay attention.
The schedule is a little daunting, which is a good thing for evaluating an interim head coach. Next week at home vs. the Jets followed by a 10 am start in Miami, another 10 am start in St. Louis and ending the season by hosting Washington. Singletary is a Hall of Famer whowon a Super Bowl ring as the leader of one of the best defenses the NFL has ever seen. He doesn’t speak in shades of gray, he speaks in black and white. In his first game as head coach, he famously sent Vernon Davis to the showers early and dropped his pants during his halftime speech for visual aid. During the following bye week, there was much consternation from the media that “Today’s player” is different and wouldn’t respond to Singletary’s antics. Yet, Vernon Davis said about Singletary after the Buffalo win just last week, "I think he should get the job. He's a great coach. He's been there, done that. He knows what it takes, and he's very straightforward." Davis only has three catches over the last four games and Niners have only thrown the ball his way seven times in those four games so it would be easy for him to be unhappy. It seems, Singletary has the players attention and they like what they’re hearing. Football is a manly game. It’s often associated (correctly or not) with warfare and battle because of its violent nature and the necessity of total team cooperation for success. True competitors don’t like to play he said/she said games. They want to hear it like it is -face to face. No need for sugar coating, just come clean. It seems to be working right now for Singletary, let’s see if it works the last four weeks.
If Singletary is seemingly winning over his players, what about the coaches? Singletary doesn’t have to win over his coaches, or Nolan’s coaches, but he is handling them differently, perhaps more effectively, than Nolan did. Let’s start with Martz. Nolan brought in Martz to save the offense and, thus, save his own job. Nolan wasn’t an offensive minded guy and left Martz to work on his own in his mad scientist laboratory trying to bring the monster of JTO to life. JTO was inserted as starting QB after a puppet QB competition and proceeded to get sacked repetitively and turn the ball over more than any other player in the league. Singletary saw less than one half of JTO as head coach and immediately went to Shaun Hill. Hill has already thrown as many touchdowns in 4 ½ games as JTO did in the first 7 ½ games, with 8(!) less interceptions. Hill is also getting sacked about half as much as JTO did. You can credit Hill and you can credit Martz with changing the offense to mesh with Hill’s skill set, but what took so long? Singletary doesn’t do offense, either. Yet, he has successfully reined in Martz and forced him to call the game according to the team game plan, not the mad scientist game plan. The defense has shifted to a base 3-4 instead of the ineffective hybrid that Nolan was running. Greg Manusky has gone from up in the booth to down on the field. Seems harmless, right? While Nolan was running the defense from the sideline Manusky was up in the booth. Was Nolan spending too much time worrying about the defense while ignoring his resposiblities as a head coach? I can’t say. From everything I’ve read throughout his tenure, Nolan was always overmatched as a head coach and a GM. Singletary seems to be running the team in a more CEO style than Nolan, which is a good thing. Monitor the temperature of the team and their response to Singletary throughout December.
2. Offensive line.
The unit has potential. When you use terms like “potential” it means that they aren’t good, but they are young and there is hope for a better future. Offensive line continuity is highly important to the overall success of any team. Look to see how the 49ers line plays over the next four games. The positions are firmly set: Staley, left tackle, Baas, left guard, Heitmann, center, Rookie Rachal, right guard and Snyder at right tackle. Good offensive line play involves teamwork and trust. Defensive blitzes and stunts are designed to confuse the offense into making mistakes. For an offensive line to be effective everybody has to be on the same page and that can only happen when guys play together. The 49er O-line currently ranks 8th in Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards(ALY), which measures the effectiveness of the RB/OL combination for all running back carries and then adjusts for down, distance, situation and opponent. Eighth!8th out of 32 teams is pretty darn impressive to me! . On the other hand, the 49ers are last in the Power Success category, which measures percentage of successful 3rd and 4th down carries of two yards and less to go as well as 1st or 2nd and goal of the same distance. The 49ers O-line also ranks 31st in Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR), which calculates sacks per pass attempt. The high ALY ranking is encouraging, indicating that (A Frank Gore is good and (B maybe the line hasn’t been playing as bad as it seems. In these next four games, look to see the sack rate drop, partly because Hill takes waaaaay less sacks than JTO, but the unit should also play more cohesively. The Power Success ranking should get better as well. On 3rd or 4th and short, see how many yards the team picks up and see which guys are making the key blocks.
3. Receiving corps.
It’s not pretty going down the list of leading wide receivers on the 49ers since T.O. left in 2003. The list includes, Cedrick Wilson, Curtis Conway, Brandon Lloyd, Johnnie Morton, Antonio Bryant, Darrell Jackson and Arnaz Battle. Four years of bad, ugly, pug-fugly receiving. No wide receiver has even had 60 receptions since 2003. This season, with Mike Martz, Isaac Bruce would have to average at least 5 catches each of the remaining games to get to 60 receptions. The 49ers need to create a more balanced offensive attack and the passing game needs to provide a more consistent threat to opposing defenses. Josh Morgan and Jason Hill have provided reasons to believe that there could be hope for the future. Morgan showed up in the pre-season then got a staph infection, lost a bunch of weight and was on the sidelines for a couple weeks. When he got back, he was looking good, and then he tweaked his groin and has been out the last couple weeks. The staph infection is random and unfortunate and the groin could be the same, but now Morgan has to comeback and prove he can stay healthy and productive. Jason Hill has had a couple nice games after barely even getting on the field last season. A strong finish to the season could be a sign of bigger and better things to come.
4. P-Willy.
Patrick Willis was defensive rookie of the year for 2007. He’s got the second most tackles in the NFL this season after leading the league last season. If there is one guy you can watch on this team every defensive play, it’s Willis. He’s active. He’s exciting. His motor is always running on high. He’s a playmaker. Yet, he hasn’t been the same P-Willy all year. Sure, he had that 85 yard INT return against Seattle early in the season, but something has been missing. Mostly, it’s because O-lineman were getting to him and keeping him from making more tackles. The constant changing of defensive sets put out there by Nolan seemed to be the biggest reason for his drop off in production. Last year, the success of P-Willy had to do with the NT clogging up opposing offensive lines enough to let P-Willy roam freely and hunt down ball carriers. Since Singletary took the headsets, he and Manusky have stayed with a base 3-4 most of the time. Players (Sopoaga and Franklin, mostly) can focus on that one formation and getting comfortable in their responsibilities. This newfound defensive stability should allow P-Willy to do what he does best – dominate. Watch for P-Willy to make more plays over the last month.
5. 2009 1st round draft pick.
The 49ers are likely going to be selecting between the 6th and 12th picks in the April draft. I’d feel pretty comfortable if the 49ers get the 11th pick. Since 2003, here are the #11 picks: Marcus Trufant, Ben Roethlisberger, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Cutler, Patrick Willis and Leodis McKelvin. That’s going to be a prime pick that should contribute immediately. Who will it be? Go over and check out the top 12 rated prospects and various sites and then pick your favorites. Could they get a Michael Jenkins or Vontae Davis to step in for an aging Walt Harris? Will they decide they need to go Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin at wide receiver? Or maybe pick an OT, with Michael Oher or Eben Britton, moving Snyder to the utility lineman role? I didn’t even mention the elephant in the room, quarterback. Sam Bradford? Matt Stafford? These last four weeks will be used by the coaching staff and front office to evaluate personnel. Do your own evaluations. Keep track of who’s giving up big plays, sacks, dropping passes, missing tackles or not really doing anything when they’re on the field? Which players are standing out above the rest? Diagnose the most troubled starting position and then check the draft boards and figure out who would fit best.
There are reasons to watch the Niners in December.
The Fat Guy
1. The Singletary effect.
You’ve heard the refrain interim head coaches don’t succeed. What does that mean for Singletary? He’s definitely not the traditional interim head coach, but does that mean he’s the right fit for the permanent job? The last four weeks should provide insight into his capabilities as a head coach, so pay attention.
The schedule is a little daunting, which is a good thing for evaluating an interim head coach. Next week at home vs. the Jets followed by a 10 am start in Miami, another 10 am start in St. Louis and ending the season by hosting Washington. Singletary is a Hall of Famer whowon a Super Bowl ring as the leader of one of the best defenses the NFL has ever seen. He doesn’t speak in shades of gray, he speaks in black and white. In his first game as head coach, he famously sent Vernon Davis to the showers early and dropped his pants during his halftime speech for visual aid. During the following bye week, there was much consternation from the media that “Today’s player” is different and wouldn’t respond to Singletary’s antics. Yet, Vernon Davis said about Singletary after the Buffalo win just last week, "I think he should get the job. He's a great coach. He's been there, done that. He knows what it takes, and he's very straightforward." Davis only has three catches over the last four games and Niners have only thrown the ball his way seven times in those four games so it would be easy for him to be unhappy. It seems, Singletary has the players attention and they like what they’re hearing. Football is a manly game. It’s often associated (correctly or not) with warfare and battle because of its violent nature and the necessity of total team cooperation for success. True competitors don’t like to play he said/she said games. They want to hear it like it is -face to face. No need for sugar coating, just come clean. It seems to be working right now for Singletary, let’s see if it works the last four weeks.
If Singletary is seemingly winning over his players, what about the coaches? Singletary doesn’t have to win over his coaches, or Nolan’s coaches, but he is handling them differently, perhaps more effectively, than Nolan did. Let’s start with Martz. Nolan brought in Martz to save the offense and, thus, save his own job. Nolan wasn’t an offensive minded guy and left Martz to work on his own in his mad scientist laboratory trying to bring the monster of JTO to life. JTO was inserted as starting QB after a puppet QB competition and proceeded to get sacked repetitively and turn the ball over more than any other player in the league. Singletary saw less than one half of JTO as head coach and immediately went to Shaun Hill. Hill has already thrown as many touchdowns in 4 ½ games as JTO did in the first 7 ½ games, with 8(!) less interceptions. Hill is also getting sacked about half as much as JTO did. You can credit Hill and you can credit Martz with changing the offense to mesh with Hill’s skill set, but what took so long? Singletary doesn’t do offense, either. Yet, he has successfully reined in Martz and forced him to call the game according to the team game plan, not the mad scientist game plan. The defense has shifted to a base 3-4 instead of the ineffective hybrid that Nolan was running. Greg Manusky has gone from up in the booth to down on the field. Seems harmless, right? While Nolan was running the defense from the sideline Manusky was up in the booth. Was Nolan spending too much time worrying about the defense while ignoring his resposiblities as a head coach? I can’t say. From everything I’ve read throughout his tenure, Nolan was always overmatched as a head coach and a GM. Singletary seems to be running the team in a more CEO style than Nolan, which is a good thing. Monitor the temperature of the team and their response to Singletary throughout December.
2. Offensive line.
The unit has potential. When you use terms like “potential” it means that they aren’t good, but they are young and there is hope for a better future. Offensive line continuity is highly important to the overall success of any team. Look to see how the 49ers line plays over the next four games. The positions are firmly set: Staley, left tackle, Baas, left guard, Heitmann, center, Rookie Rachal, right guard and Snyder at right tackle. Good offensive line play involves teamwork and trust. Defensive blitzes and stunts are designed to confuse the offense into making mistakes. For an offensive line to be effective everybody has to be on the same page and that can only happen when guys play together. The 49er O-line currently ranks 8th in Football Outsiders Adjusted Line Yards(ALY), which measures the effectiveness of the RB/OL combination for all running back carries and then adjusts for down, distance, situation and opponent. Eighth!8th out of 32 teams is pretty darn impressive to me! . On the other hand, the 49ers are last in the Power Success category, which measures percentage of successful 3rd and 4th down carries of two yards and less to go as well as 1st or 2nd and goal of the same distance. The 49ers O-line also ranks 31st in Adjusted Sack Rate (ASR), which calculates sacks per pass attempt. The high ALY ranking is encouraging, indicating that (A Frank Gore is good and (B maybe the line hasn’t been playing as bad as it seems. In these next four games, look to see the sack rate drop, partly because Hill takes waaaaay less sacks than JTO, but the unit should also play more cohesively. The Power Success ranking should get better as well. On 3rd or 4th and short, see how many yards the team picks up and see which guys are making the key blocks.
3. Receiving corps.
It’s not pretty going down the list of leading wide receivers on the 49ers since T.O. left in 2003. The list includes, Cedrick Wilson, Curtis Conway, Brandon Lloyd, Johnnie Morton, Antonio Bryant, Darrell Jackson and Arnaz Battle. Four years of bad, ugly, pug-fugly receiving. No wide receiver has even had 60 receptions since 2003. This season, with Mike Martz, Isaac Bruce would have to average at least 5 catches each of the remaining games to get to 60 receptions. The 49ers need to create a more balanced offensive attack and the passing game needs to provide a more consistent threat to opposing defenses. Josh Morgan and Jason Hill have provided reasons to believe that there could be hope for the future. Morgan showed up in the pre-season then got a staph infection, lost a bunch of weight and was on the sidelines for a couple weeks. When he got back, he was looking good, and then he tweaked his groin and has been out the last couple weeks. The staph infection is random and unfortunate and the groin could be the same, but now Morgan has to comeback and prove he can stay healthy and productive. Jason Hill has had a couple nice games after barely even getting on the field last season. A strong finish to the season could be a sign of bigger and better things to come.
4. P-Willy.
Patrick Willis was defensive rookie of the year for 2007. He’s got the second most tackles in the NFL this season after leading the league last season. If there is one guy you can watch on this team every defensive play, it’s Willis. He’s active. He’s exciting. His motor is always running on high. He’s a playmaker. Yet, he hasn’t been the same P-Willy all year. Sure, he had that 85 yard INT return against Seattle early in the season, but something has been missing. Mostly, it’s because O-lineman were getting to him and keeping him from making more tackles. The constant changing of defensive sets put out there by Nolan seemed to be the biggest reason for his drop off in production. Last year, the success of P-Willy had to do with the NT clogging up opposing offensive lines enough to let P-Willy roam freely and hunt down ball carriers. Since Singletary took the headsets, he and Manusky have stayed with a base 3-4 most of the time. Players (Sopoaga and Franklin, mostly) can focus on that one formation and getting comfortable in their responsibilities. This newfound defensive stability should allow P-Willy to do what he does best – dominate. Watch for P-Willy to make more plays over the last month.
5. 2009 1st round draft pick.
The 49ers are likely going to be selecting between the 6th and 12th picks in the April draft. I’d feel pretty comfortable if the 49ers get the 11th pick. Since 2003, here are the #11 picks: Marcus Trufant, Ben Roethlisberger, DeMarcus Ware, Jay Cutler, Patrick Willis and Leodis McKelvin. That’s going to be a prime pick that should contribute immediately. Who will it be? Go over and check out the top 12 rated prospects and various sites and then pick your favorites. Could they get a Michael Jenkins or Vontae Davis to step in for an aging Walt Harris? Will they decide they need to go Michael Crabtree or Jeremy Maclin at wide receiver? Or maybe pick an OT, with Michael Oher or Eben Britton, moving Snyder to the utility lineman role? I didn’t even mention the elephant in the room, quarterback. Sam Bradford? Matt Stafford? These last four weeks will be used by the coaching staff and front office to evaluate personnel. Do your own evaluations. Keep track of who’s giving up big plays, sacks, dropping passes, missing tackles or not really doing anything when they’re on the field? Which players are standing out above the rest? Diagnose the most troubled starting position and then check the draft boards and figure out who would fit best.
There are reasons to watch the Niners in December.
The Fat Guy
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
The Jamal Crawford Effect
The Jamal Crawford Effect
(Editor’s Note: RT lived in Chicago when he was on the Bulls, New York when he was on the Knicks and JC followed RT to the Bay Area. He is very passionate about this topic)
I was watching the game last night and I realized that there are at least 15,000 Warriors fans who do not know anything about the Jamal Crawford Effect. I only say 15,000 because that is how many people who actually cheered when he was scoring last night. These are the same people who cheered when Jamison made three pointers. You always have to ask yourself – If you do not encourage your children to run around blind folded with sharp objects, than why would you encourage equially dangerous behavior like Jamal Crawford going for more than 30 points!? Why would I not want a Warrior to score a lot of points? Allow me to explain …
As I have said for the past 6 years (the length of my relationship with Jamal Crawford basketball), he is a loser. To be clear, he does not play on winning teams and he is more often than not the reason for the lack of winning.
Here are the problems:
Problem #1: He doesn’t get paid to win
There isn’t a player in the league who cares more about getting paid than winning more than Jamal Crawford. Somebody told him a long time ago that the player that scores the most points gets the most money. (I have to admit that it is pretty good advice). He shoots as much as possible without regard for the score or what the current score is in the game. Furthermore, Crawford knows that NBA teams do not have large staffs of scouts so if he looks good on paper (which he does) somebody will always pay him.
(Ironically, I thought the only somebody was Isiah. However, I have to admit that part of me believes Mullin made the trade so Cohen and Rowell would be stuck with two of the three biggest losers in the NBA for the next three years.)
Problem #2: We are talking about passing, not scoring, passing
If you asked Jamal Crawford – “Whose game most closely resembles yours” – he would answer AI. JC believes he should be the leading scorer every night and is the perfect combo guard. I guess he didn’t catch the breaking news that there is only one AI and everyone else under 6’4” should learn how to pass.
(The perfect example of his selfish play was last night when Jackson could have had a wide open look to win the game but JC decided to continue with his fourth quarter cold streak and lose the game while being triple teamed. Of course, everybody in the arena was surprised he missed and thought it was a good shot. Don’t worry, just like fans in Chicago and New York, you will get used to it)
Problem #3: I scored 40 and that is more than the guy I was guarding
This statement sums up the fun part of the Jamal Crawford Effect. JC learned this trick in high school and it hasn’t failed him sense. It has not failed “him” but his teams have suffered since college. He goes into every game thinking it is a duel between him and the guy he is guarding. The only score JC cares about is how many points he had compared to his counterpart.
Let’s look at the JC scoreboard:
(We will not count the game in Washington because he was new to the “offense”)
@ Boston – JC: 18 vs. Rondo: 22
Tough loss but they are the World Champions
@ Cleveland – JC: 15 vs. Mo Williams: 16
A very close score but the victory went to Williams because he was able to covert from the line while JC was only 1-3 from the stripe. Williams did play 8 less minutes than JC but who is counting.
@ New York – JC: 21 vs. Duhon: 12
JC gets his revenge on his first trip back to New York. Congratulations!!! Duhon did have 22 assists and lead his team to an 82 point first half but that doesn’t really matter.
Miami – JC: 40 vs. Chalmers and Quinn: 20
JC doubled the score of his two counter parts. I have to admit he dominated last night! I hope he went out to a steak dinner.
The Warriors are 0-5 with Jamal Crawford but he is 2-2 including the current 2 game win streak. I cannot wait to see if he keeps the streak alive.
Go Jamal Crawford … I mean Warriors!
Nothing quite like the Jamal Crawford Effect
(Editor’s Note: RT lived in Chicago when he was on the Bulls, New York when he was on the Knicks and JC followed RT to the Bay Area. He is very passionate about this topic)
I was watching the game last night and I realized that there are at least 15,000 Warriors fans who do not know anything about the Jamal Crawford Effect. I only say 15,000 because that is how many people who actually cheered when he was scoring last night. These are the same people who cheered when Jamison made three pointers. You always have to ask yourself – If you do not encourage your children to run around blind folded with sharp objects, than why would you encourage equially dangerous behavior like Jamal Crawford going for more than 30 points!? Why would I not want a Warrior to score a lot of points? Allow me to explain …
As I have said for the past 6 years (the length of my relationship with Jamal Crawford basketball), he is a loser. To be clear, he does not play on winning teams and he is more often than not the reason for the lack of winning.
Here are the problems:
Problem #1: He doesn’t get paid to win
There isn’t a player in the league who cares more about getting paid than winning more than Jamal Crawford. Somebody told him a long time ago that the player that scores the most points gets the most money. (I have to admit that it is pretty good advice). He shoots as much as possible without regard for the score or what the current score is in the game. Furthermore, Crawford knows that NBA teams do not have large staffs of scouts so if he looks good on paper (which he does) somebody will always pay him.
(Ironically, I thought the only somebody was Isiah. However, I have to admit that part of me believes Mullin made the trade so Cohen and Rowell would be stuck with two of the three biggest losers in the NBA for the next three years.)
Problem #2: We are talking about passing, not scoring, passing
If you asked Jamal Crawford – “Whose game most closely resembles yours” – he would answer AI. JC believes he should be the leading scorer every night and is the perfect combo guard. I guess he didn’t catch the breaking news that there is only one AI and everyone else under 6’4” should learn how to pass.
(The perfect example of his selfish play was last night when Jackson could have had a wide open look to win the game but JC decided to continue with his fourth quarter cold streak and lose the game while being triple teamed. Of course, everybody in the arena was surprised he missed and thought it was a good shot. Don’t worry, just like fans in Chicago and New York, you will get used to it)
Problem #3: I scored 40 and that is more than the guy I was guarding
This statement sums up the fun part of the Jamal Crawford Effect. JC learned this trick in high school and it hasn’t failed him sense. It has not failed “him” but his teams have suffered since college. He goes into every game thinking it is a duel between him and the guy he is guarding. The only score JC cares about is how many points he had compared to his counterpart.
Let’s look at the JC scoreboard:
(We will not count the game in Washington because he was new to the “offense”)
@ Boston – JC: 18 vs. Rondo: 22
Tough loss but they are the World Champions
@ Cleveland – JC: 15 vs. Mo Williams: 16
A very close score but the victory went to Williams because he was able to covert from the line while JC was only 1-3 from the stripe. Williams did play 8 less minutes than JC but who is counting.
@ New York – JC: 21 vs. Duhon: 12
JC gets his revenge on his first trip back to New York. Congratulations!!! Duhon did have 22 assists and lead his team to an 82 point first half but that doesn’t really matter.
Miami – JC: 40 vs. Chalmers and Quinn: 20
JC doubled the score of his two counter parts. I have to admit he dominated last night! I hope he went out to a steak dinner.
The Warriors are 0-5 with Jamal Crawford but he is 2-2 including the current 2 game win streak. I cannot wait to see if he keeps the streak alive.
Go Jamal Crawford … I mean Warriors!
Nothing quite like the Jamal Crawford Effect
Monday, November 24, 2008
Random Thoughts - November 24, 2008
Random Thoughts – November 24, 2008
* If Alabama loses by less than 7 to Florida, why do they not deserve to play Florida again in the National Championship games – (because the BCS is stupid is not an answer)
* The over under on number of jump shots taken by the Warriors in a given game in March is 250.
* I have come to the conclusion that I am the only person in the Bay Area that realizes that Matt Holiday was picked up by the A’s because A) they need to give their fans something to root for next season and B) Billy Beane gets two first round draft picks when he signs elsewhere next winter.
* I need three reasons why I should watch any Niners game for the rest of the season – rtaylor@gmail.com
* Because they will wear the throw backs one more time this season is not a reason.
* There is no way JaMarcus Russell went 10 for 11
* At this point, you have to trade Cain while he still has value. If the Giants wait too long, they are going to get screwed just like the Warriors with J-Rich
* The Bay Area is a LOT better than New York in November
* Talk to you soon
* If Alabama loses by less than 7 to Florida, why do they not deserve to play Florida again in the National Championship games – (because the BCS is stupid is not an answer)
* The over under on number of jump shots taken by the Warriors in a given game in March is 250.
* I have come to the conclusion that I am the only person in the Bay Area that realizes that Matt Holiday was picked up by the A’s because A) they need to give their fans something to root for next season and B) Billy Beane gets two first round draft picks when he signs elsewhere next winter.
* I need three reasons why I should watch any Niners game for the rest of the season – rtaylor@gmail.com
* Because they will wear the throw backs one more time this season is not a reason.
* There is no way JaMarcus Russell went 10 for 11
* At this point, you have to trade Cain while he still has value. If the Giants wait too long, they are going to get screwed just like the Warriors with J-Rich
* The Bay Area is a LOT better than New York in November
* Talk to you soon
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Anthony Morrow: Surprising?
Anthony Morrow: Surprising?
Like everybody else in the Warriors world, I have been swept up in the hype that is surrounding Anthony Morrow. We have seen two truly historical performances in a row and there are two questions that we all want answered –
1) How much staying power does he have?
2) How surprising are these two games?
I will do my best to answer both without making too many outlandish predictions.
Question 1
Yes
As over 3 million bloggers and professional journalist have pointed out, the NBA is not nearly as fundamentally sound as it use to be. One of the results of this trend is that there are very few players that can consistently knock down an open shot let alone one that is contested. To keep it simple, Morrow can shoot and from almost anywhere on the floor. Will he continue to shoot as well as has over the past two games – of course not. However, his quick release and soft shot suggest that he belongs on the floor for at least 25 minutes a night for the foreseeable future.
Now for the bad news
One of the other results of the “Lack of Fundamentals” era in the NBA is that there has never been this many gifted athletes in the league. Today’s NBA player is quicker and faster than ever before which makes defending guards on the perimeter as hard as it has ever been. Anthony Morrow is not an elite athlete and we should start to see him get exposed by teams (Nellie would give anything to exploit him) on the defensive end. There is always a reason a player 6’5” who can shoot does not get drafted and for Anthony Morrow it is because he does not possess the out-of-this-world athletic ability that you will find in most established NBA players under 7’ tall.
Question 2
A little a short of very
First of all Anthony Morrow was not exactly a stiff before he joined the Warriors. He earned Mr. Basketball honors in the basketball crazy state of North Carolina in his senior year which should not be under emphasized. Furthermore, he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back (believe me – I know what that feels like) which caused him to miss all the weight room preparation and most of fall practice before his junior season at Georgia Tech. Obviously, this injury adversely affected his abilities his junior year but he came back strong in his senior season which included 14.3 ppg and a ridiculous 44.8 3p%. There was no doubt that he could shoot when he entered the draft last year which should not make his shooting percentages (64.7 3p% and 62.7 fg%) that surprising.
However, what is surprising is his lack of big scoring efforts in college. The most points he ever scored against a team you have heard of after his back injury was against Wake Forest last year where he scored 23 points. I don’t think anyone could have predicted he would score 37 points against the Clippers and then 25 points against a very athletic Blazers team. I realize he was shooting the lights out but he was never that hot in college. Additionally, he is playing on a team without a point guard so it is not like he is getting set up to score. His past scoring outputs and lack of a teammate that can distribute the ball does make his last two games pretty surprising.
Unfortunately for Morrow, there are a lot of reasons to believe he will have a rough shooting night in at least one of the next few games. I think the entire Warriors world will be very interested in how he (and almost more importantly Nellie) reacts to some adversity.
Like everybody else in the Warriors world, I have been swept up in the hype that is surrounding Anthony Morrow. We have seen two truly historical performances in a row and there are two questions that we all want answered –
1) How much staying power does he have?
2) How surprising are these two games?
I will do my best to answer both without making too many outlandish predictions.
Question 1
Yes
As over 3 million bloggers and professional journalist have pointed out, the NBA is not nearly as fundamentally sound as it use to be. One of the results of this trend is that there are very few players that can consistently knock down an open shot let alone one that is contested. To keep it simple, Morrow can shoot and from almost anywhere on the floor. Will he continue to shoot as well as has over the past two games – of course not. However, his quick release and soft shot suggest that he belongs on the floor for at least 25 minutes a night for the foreseeable future.
Now for the bad news
One of the other results of the “Lack of Fundamentals” era in the NBA is that there has never been this many gifted athletes in the league. Today’s NBA player is quicker and faster than ever before which makes defending guards on the perimeter as hard as it has ever been. Anthony Morrow is not an elite athlete and we should start to see him get exposed by teams (Nellie would give anything to exploit him) on the defensive end. There is always a reason a player 6’5” who can shoot does not get drafted and for Anthony Morrow it is because he does not possess the out-of-this-world athletic ability that you will find in most established NBA players under 7’ tall.
Question 2
A little a short of very
First of all Anthony Morrow was not exactly a stiff before he joined the Warriors. He earned Mr. Basketball honors in the basketball crazy state of North Carolina in his senior year which should not be under emphasized. Furthermore, he suffered a stress fracture in his lower back (believe me – I know what that feels like) which caused him to miss all the weight room preparation and most of fall practice before his junior season at Georgia Tech. Obviously, this injury adversely affected his abilities his junior year but he came back strong in his senior season which included 14.3 ppg and a ridiculous 44.8 3p%. There was no doubt that he could shoot when he entered the draft last year which should not make his shooting percentages (64.7 3p% and 62.7 fg%) that surprising.
However, what is surprising is his lack of big scoring efforts in college. The most points he ever scored against a team you have heard of after his back injury was against Wake Forest last year where he scored 23 points. I don’t think anyone could have predicted he would score 37 points against the Clippers and then 25 points against a very athletic Blazers team. I realize he was shooting the lights out but he was never that hot in college. Additionally, he is playing on a team without a point guard so it is not like he is getting set up to score. His past scoring outputs and lack of a teammate that can distribute the ball does make his last two games pretty surprising.
Unfortunately for Morrow, there are a lot of reasons to believe he will have a rough shooting night in at least one of the next few games. I think the entire Warriors world will be very interested in how he (and almost more importantly Nellie) reacts to some adversity.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Random Thoughts - Nov. 17, 2008
Random Thoughts – Nov. 17, 2008
* Anthony Morrow: WTF?
* The Stanford touchdown at the end of the USC game was the second greatest gambling moment of the 21st century. USC was all set to cover until … 1) Stanford attempted to kick a FG (which would not have affected the spread) 2) But Pete Carroll got pissed and screwed over at least 25,000 USC gamblers by “icing” the kicker 3) Jim Harbaugh (who is just as big an egomaniac as Pete Carroll) decided to go for the end zone instead. 4) Stanford scored a touchdown as time expired and USC doesn’t cover.
* The greatest gambling moment: Chris Duhon hitting a half court three as time expired against UCONN in the final four in 2004
* I also love how Jim Harbaugh said the quarterback “convinced” him to go for it. Does anybody believe that? Yes, the Chronicle
* How did the Lakers lose to the Pistons at home? People in LA had a tough weekend of sports gambling
* Damon Bruce talked about as much $hit as you can talk about Mike Singletary on his Friday show. He even went as far as to say he needs to blow out the Rams to prove he can coach. If this guy was doing a show in NY, he would have been fired this morning. However, nobody is going to say anything to him today. The West Coast where accountability doesn’t happen
* Does anybody actually watch the Raiders?
* I don’t care how many people disagree with me – Baron Davis would have cared if he was on the Warriors right now.
Talk to you soon
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