The Official Unofficial Golden State Warriors Preview 08-09

Last Year

Before we can look ahead - we have to review what happened last year.

The NBA suspended Stephen Jackson for the first 8 games for an incident that occurred in 2006 and the 6th best team in the western conference did not make the playoffs. To put salt on the wound, Captain Jack was playing for the Pacers at the time of the incident. The league needs to start to understand what the point of a suspension is. To me, the point of a suspension is to discipline a player for conduct that is detrimental to the league, the team, his teammates etc. The fans and the community should never be the biggest loser when a player does something wrong. In no way am I condoning Stephen Jackson’s actions but I do think the league could get there point across while limiting how much the suspension affects the team’s ability to win. Players are human beings and when push comes to shove their pay check is more important to them than winning a championship.

(Think about it this way – Most employees at a publically held companies are not willing to give up a month’s salary so the company’s stock can go up.)

So let’s try this idea:

The league still determines the length of the suspension but the team gets to determine what games the player is suspended for. The player still learns a lesson because he gets his pay taken away but the team (fans) doesn’t have to pay the ultimate price of potentially not making the playoffs. Is this really that bad of an idea!?

I will admit a few other things happened last year – Monta became an “IT” player, Baron got screwed out of an All-Star appearance, the front-office failed to make an impact trade and Marco Bellineli was a sensation … in the Las Vegas summer league.

Let’s move on

The Off-Season

The GOOD

* Monta Ellis and Andris Biedrins signings: Monta is an “IT” player and I doubt his injury will hurt his explosiveness long-term. His contract will be viewed as a steal after it expires.

As for Biedrins, he is 22 years old and we have not seen anything close to his offense potential. NellieBall doesn’t exactly help his numbers and the lack of another big body down low has kept his production down over the past two years. Now that he has Turiaf to take some of the pressure off him on the defensive end, we are going to get the opportunity to see Biedrins reach new offensive heights.

(Of course, Nellie could play him along Harrington the entire season then all bets are off)

* Ronny Turiaf signing: Let me get this straight, we acquired the defensive rebounder I have been requesting for the last two seasons and we signed him away from the Lakers!! Turiaf is a steal (get it – because we stole him from the Lakers – nevermind) at $4.5 mm a year and he is exactly what we need (or needed last year). Turiaf is going to be a big time contributor over the next 4 years even if the stat sheet doesn’t say so.

* The Future: Even I have to admit that the long-term health of the Warriors looks pretty good. Here is our team for the next three years:

PG: TBD, SG: Monta Ellis, SF: Stephen Jackson (assuming he gets an extension) PF: Turiaf C: Biedrins

Bench: Azubuike, Belinelli, Wright, Randolph, Maggette

Now imagine if Wright or Randolph blossoms into an “IT” player!? Now, if the Warriors just had a point guard to run the show …

The BAD

* Baron Davis situation: I could write 10 pages on the Baron Davis situation but I will leave just say this: If the Warriors would have completed an extension with Baron and not signed Maggette. In two years, the Warriors are one of the best 4 teams in the league! Of course, what would the Warriors front office be if they were not doing their best to ruin something good!?

(I hate being a Warriors fan sometimes)

* Corey Maggette signing: The next part of this article requires a designated reader (“DR”) so go find a close friend that is literate. I will wait … Ready? Ok, close your eyes (not the DR)

I have a player with the following attributes:

- a 9-year veteran
- Stats: 22.1 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.7 apg, 38.4 3P% and 81.2 FT%
- 6’6”, 225 lbs.
- He attempted the 6th most free-throws in the league in 2008-09 and converted the 4th most.
- He fits perfectly into Warrior offensive system and his numbers are only going to improve.

Now it is time for you to play GM. He is willing to sign with your team for a very reasonable 5 year, $50 million.

Do you sign him?

(You can open your eyes and thank the DR)

This process is exactly how the Warriors front-office decides what players to sign. Thank god they do not open their eyes because if they did - they might know that Maggette plays no defense, cares less about winning than Stephan Marbury and his nickname on workingthecorners.com is (and will always be) Corey “Garbage Time” Maggette. If the Maggette signing is not proof that the Warriors are doomed forever, I don’t know what is.

(Seriously, has this guy ever won anything? It is not a coincidence that he is going to spend his entire career playing for the Clippers and Warriors)

* Monta Ellis debacle: Did he do something stupid? Yes. Should he kick all his friends and agents to the curb for advising him to lie? Yes. Is Robert Rowell an idiot for suspending him for 30 games? Yes.

When the Warriors fearless leader was questioned by the media about the Ellis injury he gave the following answer:

“Chris Mullin made it perfectly clear to both Mr. Cohan and myself that he didn’t think this was a big deal at the beginning. And we happen to think it’s a very big deal.

We happen to think that it’s a big deal for our fans, it’s a big deal for our season ticket-holders, it’s a big deal for our business partners, it’s a big deal for the Warriors organization.”

How many fans do you think he questioned? Do you think he sent out a survey to each season ticket-holder and the major sponsors? If they did ask these people and entities, I am sure they all had the following response:

“I am very upset about the Monta Ellis injury and suspending him for 30 games is a much bigger deal than not bringing Baron Davis back.. I am thrilled that the organization is going to give me a discount on my tickets this year because there is no way they are going to force me to renew my season-tickets next year in order to benefit from this $3 million windfall. As a fan/season ticket-holder/sponsor I am much more interested in punishing Monta Ellis than making the playoffs. I am excited to know that my interests remain the top priority of the organization. Keep up the good work!!”

When asked about what is going to be done with the $3 million, Rowell had this to say:

“Our season ticket-holders will benefit from the entire amount next season in their renewals”

On another note, I would like to congratulate Rowell on earning an A in his Al Davis Sports Business 101class.

Outlook for 2008-2009

The best way to approach this preview is by examining the roster and the potential starters.

(Reminder: This is my starting 5 and not what the actual starting 5 will be against the Hornets.)

Point Guard: This position is easy because the Warriors don’t have one. Let me be the first one to break the news to you … MONTA ELLIS IS NOT A POINT GUARD!!! I am not sure where this idea came from but everyone needs to open their eyes and realize that Ellis is a C+ passer at best. AI was never successful playing a point guard so why does anybody think Ellis will be any better!?

Memo to Mullin (or whoever is in charge at this point)

Please trade for a point guard that can guard a shooting guard and knows how to pass.

Sincerely,

workingthecorners.com

In the spirit of “the roster is not going to change”, I do like the idea of putting Stephen Jackson at the point. He can pass the ball, penetrate and cause crazy mismatches on the offensive end. Not to mention, he is our only viable option at this point.

Shooting Guard: Kelenna Azubuike is our best option because he can shoot and plays serviceable defense. The Azubuike signing didn’t seem to make a lot of sense in July but it looks pretty shrewd at this point.

(It should go without saying that Monta Ellis starts when he returns to the team)

Small Forward: Corey Maggette. Garbage Time should start at small forward. There I said it.

(It should be noted, I picked Garbage Time second in my fantasy draft just so I could enjoy watching him score 40 points in 30 point blowout losses.)

Power Forward: How can you not love Ronny Turiaf getting 32 minutes a night, grabbing 10 rebounds and providing energy on both ends of the court!? Tim Roy is going to love this guy.

Center: I am thinking 14.3 ppg and 11.2 rpg this season for Andris Biedrins as he takes the next step in his development. I will say it now – the most positive thing we will take away from this season will be the significant development of the Warriors front court.

Bench:

* Al Harrington: If you would have told me in 2002 that the Warriors starting power forward in 08-09 would shoot 3’s with complete disregard for his ability to make them, play defense in 10 games all season and turn the ball over almost every time he tried to beat someone off the dribble – I would have said “there is no way Antawn Jamison is still on the team in 08-09”. The Warriors have really progressed at power forward position.

* Brandon Wright/Anthony Randolph/Marco Belinelli: One of these guys is going to exceed expectations this year. However, I think it will only be one of them.

* Marcus Williams: To quote Dean Wormer (from Animal House): “Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to [make it as a point guard in the NBA]”.

* DeMarcus Nelson: If Coach K doesn’t think you are good enough to play point guard in college than you are not good enough to play point guard in the NBA.

Prediction

The Warriors

The Warriors are not going to make the playoffs. They weren’t going to make the playoffs with a healthy Monta Ellis for the entire season. In the west, your team has to have one of the following attributes to make the playoffs: (1) a good point guard (Utah, New Orleans, San Antonio, Phoenix and Dallas, (2) an incredible amount of talent at other positions (Lakers) or (3) players who know how to play good team defense (Rockets). Needless to say, the Warriors do not have any of these attributes. However, there is enough talent on the roster to keep them in the playoff discussion until mid-March at which point we will get to see a newly healed Monta Ellis prove that he is not a point guard.

Go Warriors!

Finish: 40-42, 4th in the Pacific and 10th in the Western Conference.

The League

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Atlantic
1. Boston (1)
2. Philadelphia (3)
3. Toronto (6)
4. New Jersey
5. New York

Central
1. Cleveland (2)
2. Detroit (4)
3. Chicago
4. Indiana
5. Milwaukee

Southeast
1. Miami (5)
2. Orlando (7)
3. Atlanta (8)
4. Washington
5. Charlotte

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Northwest
1. Utah (3)
2. Portland (7)
3. Denver
4. Minnesota
5. OKC

Southwest
1. New Orleans (2)
2. San Antonio (4)
3. Houston (6)
4. Dallas (8)
5. Memphis

Pacific
1. LA Lakers (1)
2. Phoenix (5)
3. LA Clippers
4. The Warriors
5. Sacramento

The Finals
LA Lakers over Philadelphia

College Football Mid-Terms

In breaking news, college football has a problem. The same problem it has always had – it is impossible to determine who should be playing in the National Championship game. The vast majority of the BCS complainers are demanding a playoff. While a playoff would be nice, it takes away from a lot of the deep traditions of the sport. Here are some of the traditions that would be destroyed by a playoff:

* Bowl Games: There are many people out there that don’t understand the importance of bowl games. Not only do they offer numerous teams the chance to play an extra game at the end of the year (I understand some of the bowls could be kept around for the 6-6 teams even with a playoff system) but they also offer a unique experience for the student athletes and the communities that host the bowls. Players are at these bowl sights for 4 or 5 days before the game and they visit hospitals, hold football clinics and talk to kids about staying in school. Do you think the basketball players in the NCAA tournament are doing this before the sweet 16? The players also get a slew of commemorative tokens for playing in the game which many will cherish forever. Realistically, only a select few teams (Georgia and USC last year) get hurt by not having a playoff because they missed their chance to play for the National Championship.

* The Importance of the Regular Season: For the sake of argument, we will say the top 8 teams make it to the playoffs. Do you think USC really cares if they lose to Oregon State? I would even suggest that they give players a week off here and there because losing one game doesn’t matter at all to the top teams. I am surprised this doesn’t happen more in college basketball. In the current college football system, USC needs a lot of help (similar to LSU last year) to make it to the National Championship game. Right now, every game counts and there is no other sport that can compete with that.

* The STUDENT-Athlete: Any playoff system is going to be played out from the beginning of December through the middle of January. As a result, the players involved will be taking final exams in the middle of the pressure-packed playoffs. The vast majority of football players have the “luxury” of taking finals without having to worry about what defense or offense they will be facing in a playoff game. The reality is that most of the players are not going on to the NFL. Some of them are trying to get a job on JP Morgan’s trading desk http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=3457623. Most of these football players need to focus on academics and a playoff would only hurt the academic performance of players.

Is there a perfect solution to the college football problem? No. Do I have a solution that I think will make a lot of people really satisfied? YES!

In college, most of us had to take mid-term exams. If you did well on a mid-term exam, you were not guaranteed an A in the class but it did put you in the best position to earn an A. However, if you get a C on the mid-term exam, your chance of getting an A in the class is almost non-existent. In the spirit of college mid-terms, I give you …

COLLEGE FOOTBALL MID-TERMS 2008

After six games, we have a pretty good idea of what teams are National Championship contenders and pretenders. However, we have a few of teams that play a brutal schedules in the second part of the season (Texas and Georgia) and a group of teams that play … well … nobody (USC and Penn St.). What if some of these teams had to play each other? The National Championship picture would be much clearer. Let’s get to the details of the plan:

* Teams: For the sake of argument, only the teams in the AP (or BCS) top 20 are included in Mid-term weekend. http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/ncaa/

* Schedule: The NCAA would create a committee to determine the match-ups (very similar to the NCAA tournament in basketball). The one criterion is for the committee to set up games that will make the decision on who should play in the National Championship game easier. Let’s examine the case for Utah. They have a very realistic chance of going undefeated with only two tough games left (TCU and BYU) at home. If they run the table, why should they not have a chance to play for the National Championship? The mid-term game will give them the chance to put-up or shut up.

* Logistics: (1) Every D-1 team will have to leave the third weekend in October free on their schedule. (2) The higher ranked team gets to play at home (with the current economy it just makes more sense than forcing fans of both teams to fly or drive to a neutral site) (3) The visiting school gets 15,000 tickets to the game which they can dispose of in any way they see fit. (4) Media rights will be sold by the NCAA and the travel for both teams will be paid for through the sale of these rights. (You cannot tell me that Fox, CBS, ABC and NBC would not be falling all over themselves to televise this event) (5) All proceeds from these games will be split in a similar fashion to how bowl game rights are split. (aka all conference schools get a piece of the pie)

Without any further delay, I give you the College Football Mid-Term 2008 schedule and breakdown:

(The match-ups are in order of when they game would be played)
The Match-ups

Game 1: #19 USF v. #18 UNC in Chapel Hill, NC 11:30 am ET ESPN2

Why these two teams?

Easily the least provocative game of the day but it is a big game for the conferences represented. USF is the only Big East team in the top 20 which is a big change from last year. Their only loss is to Pittsburgh (which might be the hottest team in the country) at home but they have a big win against Kansas from earlier in the season. UNC went to Rutgers and embarrassed the Scarlett Knights and has a few impressive wins over Miami in the Orange Bowl and Notre Dame at home. The winner boosts the reputation of their conference and propels them into the conversation as a potential top-10 team.

National Championship Implications

Simply put … none

Game 2: #13 LSU v. #7 Texas Tech in Lubbock, TX 12:00 pm ET CBS

Why these two teams?

If nothing else, mid-term weekend 2008 will help determine if the Big 12 has finally stepped out of the shadow of the mighty SEC. This game is very interesting because LSU is going to be really angry about being taken to the wood shed against Florida last weekend and Texas Tech pulled out a nail bitter against a mediocre Nebraska team. In the end, nothing proves conference supremacy more than the 3rd highest ranked teams in their respective conferences going head -to-head.

National Championship Implications

In true mid-term fashion, the loser of this game is out of the picture. Texas Tech cannot afford to lose at home to an LSU team that lost by 30 to Florida. However, a victory further solidifies Texas Tech’s place in the top-10 and could pad their confidence as they entire the most difficult stretch in their season. Currently, LSU is out of the national championship picture. They would need to win by a sizable margin to even have a thought of getting back in the race.

Game 3: #6 USC v. #5 Florida in the Swamp 2:00 pm ET ABC

Why these two teams?

This game is the first of three gigantic games on the day (not surprising that all three games include a SEC team). I don’t think there is a college football fan that would not tune in to watch this game. It could be argued that college football fans have been waiting for an USC-SEC match-up for quite some time. This mid-term proposal fulfills that dream.
Here are the longer term implications of this game: Pete Carroll and Urban Meyer are two of the best recruiters in the country and whoever wins this game will use this victory in living rooms of potential recruits for many years to come. Neither wants to explain why they lost to the other on the recruiting trail this winter.

National Championship Implications

The winner of this game has a very good chance of playing for the National Championship. A victory for USC legitimizes the thought that the loss to Oregon St. was a fluke and that they are more often the winner of any big game. If they lose, they are out of the National Championship picture for good. For Florida, they can prove that they are one of the top two teams in the SEC and a SEC Championship all but makes them a lock for the big game in Miami.

Game 4: #15 Boise St. v. #12 Ohio St. at the Horseshoe 3:00 pm ET ESPN

Why these two teams?

Boise St. needs to win another big game to be taken seriously. There is no better proving ground than against Ohio St. at the Horseshoe. Ohio St. has been kicked to the back burner after their pathetic showing against USC in September and they need another win to vastly improve their psyche. This game is intriguing because Ohio St. is playing for not only the Big Ten but also all big conference teams. On the flip side of the coin, Boise St. is playing for all the small guys trying to prove that they can win more than just one big game a season.

National Championship Implications

It is hard to imagine either of these teams in the National Championship game but a Boise St. victory opens up all voters to the idea that the small guys deserve more respect in future seasons. If I was a coach, I would not want to play an undefeated Boise St. team that has beaten Oregon and Ohio St. on the road in the same season.

(The reality is that without a mid-term game, the teams in the WAC have no chance to play for the National Championship and that is stupid.)

Game 5: #20 Michigan St. v. #16 Kansas in Lawrence, KS 3:30 ET ESPN2

Why these two teams?

The Big 10 (11) has been the most criticized conference over the last two years as Ohio St. has done a poor job of proving themselves worthy of a National Championship game berth in that time frame. Michigan St. has the opportunity to bring some respectability to the Big 10 by going to Lawrence and beating a good Kansas team. The Big 12 is trying to prove it is the top conference in the country. Kansas gets the opportunity to carry the torch for the Big 12 against a Michigan St. team that has not lost since opening weekend against Cal. The Big 12 needs to win this game more than people think.

National Championship Implications

After this game is over, both of these teams become huge fans of the other team. Michigan St. will need a lot of help to get to the National Championship game but a win over a two loss Kansas team coupled wth an undefeated Big 10 season (which would include victories over Ohio State and Penn State) would give Michigan St. a compelling argument for playing in Miami. If Kansas wins this game and only loses one game in the Big 12, they could still make it to Miami if Michigan St. goes on to win the Big 10 Championship. In the end, too much has to go right for either of these teams to realistically play for the National Championship. (Of course, I said the same thing about LSU last year)

Game 6: #10 Georgia v. #4 Oklahoma in Norman, OK 5:00 ET NBC

Why these two teams?

This game is the second of three gigantic games on the day and it is the only one that pits two top 10 teams from the two power conferences. Similar to the USC-Florida game, both of these teams are looking to redeem themselves after losing earlier in the season. Georgia has been struggling on offense and Oklahoma has been struggling on defense so something will have to give. There is not a college football fan on the planet that would not watch this game.

National Championship Implications

The winner moves right back into the National Championship picture and it can be argued controls their own destiny based on the schedule that lies ahead. Oklahoma would need a little more help than Georgia but an undefeated second half would be too much to ignore in my opinion. We all know what happened to Georgia in the second half of last season and this game gives them the opportunity to have history repeat itself.

(Isn’t Georgia the most dangerous team in the second half of the season? They have looked terrible but all signs point to them turning things around. There is no reason they cannot beat LSU in Baton Rouge)

Game 7: #9 BYU v. #1 Texas in Austin, TX 7:00 pm ET ESPN

Why these two teams?

This game would be a lot more fun to watch than people think. BYU is can score in bunches and Texas has proven that they can give up points in bunches. Could there be a trap game in the most hyped weekend of the regular season? All #1 teams need to prove themselves against unique challengers. BYU is the perfect challenge for Texas because they are not familiar with BYU. If Texas made the huge mistake of not taking this game seriously, they could lose. For BYU, they get to play the top dog with everything on the line.

National Championship Implications

Texas can lose this game and still completely control their destiny but they would be left in the unenviable position of having to play a perfect second half which seems unlikely given the strength and depth of the Big 12 at this point. This game is a must win for BYU. Their schedule has been affected negatively by the decline of Washington and UCLA. BYU is out of the National Championship if they lose.

Game 8: #14 Utah v. #8 Oklahoma St. in Stillwater, OK 7:30 pm ET ESPN2

Why these two teams?

This game is interesting because it puts two teams that were seen as unlikely to contend for the National Championship at the start of the season. Now, they find themselves in the same boat with some big wins under their belt – can they maintain focus to finish the season? Utah’s victory over Michigan becomes less and less impressive by the day and their remaining schedule is not going help their case for a BCS bowl. Oklahoma St. has gone from hunter to prey. Can they handle the newfound pressure of being a top 10 team?

National Championship Implications

Even with a victory against OSU, I don’t think Utah goes to the National Championship game. There are too many other teams with much stronger schedules. This game should be considered a must win for Oklahoma St. since it is highly unlikely that they make it through the rest of the Big 12 season without a loss.

Game 9: #3 Penn St. v. #2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa, AL 8:00 pm ET ABC

Why these two teams?

The entire idea of a College Football Mid-Term losses all credibility if these two teams do not play each other. The storyline is exactly why we watch college football. Both storied programs have struggled over the past 15 years with only a few successes to hang their hats on. Now, they are both exceeding expectations and are set to make a run at the National Championship for the first time in recent memory. If you are a college football fan and do not watch this game, you are either (1) Dead (2) Dying or (3) someone close to you is very close to dead.

National Championship Implications

The winner of this game controls their own destiny while (barring a blowout) the loser still has a legitimate shot at Miami with an undefeated finish to the regular season. This game is must see T.V.

Game 10: #17 Virginia Tech v. #11 Missouri in Columbia, MO 9:30 pm ET ESPN2

Why these two teams?

If you just have not had enough college football, you have one more game left to quench your undying thirst. Virginia Tech has played good not great but they seemed destined to win the ACC. Missouri picked the wrong team (Oklahoma St.) to over look and now they are very much on the outside looking in when it comes to the Big 12 Championship and the National Championship. Both teams have a stadium full of doubters that need to be silenced.

National Championship Implications

Virginia Tech does not have the strength of schedule to overcome their loss to East Carolina. Missouri is in a very similar situation as Kansas as they need to run the table and get some help along the way.

In order to have the two best teams in the National Championship game, we need an additional non-conference game to determine who are the most worthy teams. While I know I have proposed an alternative playoff system in the past, I think the College Football Mid-Term is really the right the right way to save traditions while reaching a consensus National Champion.
This idea maintains all of the traditions that we love about college football while providing the necessary evidence needed to crown a true champion.

(Not to mention, I can’t imagine a weekend I would look forward to more.)

Lincecum Report – Start #8 - Preview

It took a little longer than I anticipated BUT workingthecorners.com has officially moved it’s HQ to SD!

Last Start:

The numbers from his last start might lead one to believe that he had a good start. He was not sharp. He did not throw a lot of first pitch strikes (40%) and the Phillies hit .333 when they were started off with a ball. His pitch count suffered because of his lack of command and some bad breaks in the field. There was a terrible call by an umpire – which turned into an error and a terrible throw by Castillo at third. While none of these calls led to earned runs, Lincecum did give up 4 runs in 6 innings because he failed to close out the inning after a bad call or an error. In the end, Lincecum did not have his best stuff but he battled through it to keep the Giants in the game.

Stat line (for the last game):
IP: 6, K: 6, BB: 2, H: 6, ER: 0

Stat line (for the last game):
IP: 42.1, K: 45, BB: 17, H: 41, ER: 7

Pitching Psychology:

For the first time this season, Lincecum had only C+ stuff and he is going to really want to bring his A game in his next start. Since the Phillies are the opponent again, he will want to show them that he does not give up 4 runs in consecutive starts – (I have to believe “the look” is going to reappear today). He is also getting an extra day of rest because of the “Zito is in the bullpen actually he is a stater actually he is a bum” situation. The combination of rest and coming off a bad start will put Lincecum in the right mind set to succeed.

Opponent Overview:

The Phillies can hit. With the addition of Rollins, their lineup gets even more dangerous for two reasons: (1) Rollins is the reigning MVP and (2) Rollins gives the Phillies another base stealer to compliment Victorino. With Rollins in the lineup, there isn’t a better 1-5 in the National League – (1) Rollins, (2) Victorino, (3) Utley, (4) Howard and (5) Burrell. (Imagine what happens when Howard gets it together!)

Three Things to Remember:

Hits:

(New HQ so a new thing to think about)

When the defensive gave the Phillies extra outs last weekend, Lincecum gave up some big hits that lead to unearned runs. Lincecum has to become more unhittable in order to bein the same conversation as Webb, Santana and Peavy.

SB:

IF/when Rollins and Victorino get on-base, can Lincecum keep them on first? Charlie Manuel will not hesitate to be aggressive – especially knowing that scoring runs against Lincecum is not easy.

The 1st Pitch:

Here is your first pitch stat of the start:

1st Pitch Ball: K – 19, BB – 14
1st Pitch Strike: K – 26, BB – 3

Enough said

Prediction:

Lincecum will start aggressive and stay aggressive. I think he goes deep into the game but gives up a few runs on the way. The Giants win a close one (shocking, I know).

Final Score:

Phillies 2 – Giants 3

Lincecum’s Stat Line
IP: 8, K: 7, BB: 1, H: 4, ER: 2

Lincecum Report – Start #5 - Preview

Last Start:

Lincecum’s last start was easily his best. He threw more innings and was significantly more economical with his pitches. While many people will point to his reduced strike out total as a negative, I think it was a positive because it saved his pitch count from getting too high in the early innings. As far as I am concerned, the deeper Lincecum can get in the game the better chance the Giants have to win. This start is a perfect example of what the Giants need to be successful when Lincecum pitches.

Stat line (for the last game):
IP: 7, K: 5, BB: 3, H: 6, ER: 0

Stat line (for the season):
IP: 23, K: 27, BB: 9, H: 23, ER: 4


Pitching Psychology:

In what is now becoming his normal mindset, Lincecum will come into this game continuing to think that he is going to dominate the opposing team. If his last 4 starts were not enough to get him in the right mind set for this start, the Padres offense and PETCO Park should have him thinking no-hitter. At this point, I don’t see how he could not be thinking he is one of the best pitchers in the National League.


Opponent Overview:

In breaking news, it is hard to score runs at PETCO Park and the Padres have a hard time scoring runs in any park. These two facts are the main reasons why the Padres come into this game against Lincecum and the Giants in last place (tied with the Giants). The Padres organization has to be frustrated by their slow start and there are no signs that their current roster has the ability to turn this thing around. While it is only April, I have to believe a lot of the players on this team have to be wondering when big changes could be coming.


Three Things to Remember:

The 1st Pitch:
I would expect Lincecum to go right after the Padres team with first pitch fastball strikes. This game has all the makings for his first complete game of the season if he starts out aggressive and he stays aggressive in the strike zone.

Hit an Inning
The one knock on Lincecum this year (and this proves that all statistics have their limitations) is that he is giving up a hit an inning. If he continues this trend, he will get burned eventually. If he starts to reduce the number of hits he gives up, the CY Young talk will start to heat up.

The Look:
If there is only one thing you want to look for tonight, it is The Look. If you do not know what the The Look is. Please read my last Lincecum report.


Prediction:

I am off the Lincecum-is-going-to-be-over-confident band wagon and I am on the this-game-has-the-makings-for-something-special band wagon. Lincecum is going to use his fastball more than he has in the past two starts and blow away the Padres hitters.

Final Score:
Giants 3 – Padres 1

Lincecum’s Stat Line
IP: 8, K: 8, BB: 2, H: 2, ER: 1

Lincecum Report – Start #4 - Review

Prediction:

IP: 5, K: 5, BB: 4, H: 6, ER: 4

“I think my prediction from last week was just one week too early. I think Lincecum over thinks this start by going with too many off speed-pitches on the first pitch and he gets into trouble early. While I think he will settle down, he cannot avoid the loss.”


Actual:

IP: 7, K: 5, BB: 3, H: 6, ER: 0

I guess if things really do come in threes I would bet against my prediction for this Thursday because I have been completely wrong for the second start in a row. Lincecum did give up 6 hits again but made every big pitch when he needed to. The numbers do not reflect how efficient and effective this start was


Overall Thoughts:

Lincecum is quickly moving into the world of “best Giants pitcher since Juan Marichal” territory. Of course, he has some tough competition from some of the other past phenoms to come through the system – does William Vanlandingham ring a bell?

In this start, Lincecum did two things that showed maturity that we have not seen from him up until this point in his very brief career

1) He threw numerous 92 mph fastballs that were turned into double plays because the hitters were way out in front of the ball (Duncan, Molina and Washington). As far back as last Sunday, he would have gone for the strikeout over the ground ball. If he sticks with his old strategy, he only makes through 5 instead of 7.

2) He gave Pujols an unintentional, intentional walk in the 6th so he could pitch to the completely overmatched Ankiel – who flew out to left field.

To put this into context, Josh Beckett (despite winning a World Series in 2003) did not learn either of these two strategies until the 2006 season (he made his major league debut in 2001). If Lincecum starts to do either or both of things on a regular basis, someone might want to tell Webb and Peavey that their reign over the CY Young might be short-lived.

Of course, all of that could have happened on accident and Lincecum could be a 5 inning a start pitcher for the rest of the year. Only time will tell.


Grading His Performance:

Similar to what I did two weeks ago, I am going to focus on the negative because focusing on the positive would make this article 10 pages long. I think Lincecum – unofficially – threw 10 belt-high, right over the middle of the plate fastballs on Saturday and none of them were hit hard. There are two conclusions that can be reached from this fact.

A) The Cardinals went up there guessing and were not looking fastball when they got them.

OR

B) Lincecum’s motion is so distracting/disceptive that batters just cannot pick up the pitch quick enough to get good wood on the ball.

I will go with choice B).

Grade: A


Three Things to Remember:

* The 1st Pitch

Here are Lincecum’s first pitch stats from Saturday’s game:

(He threw a first pitch strike to 15 of the 27 batters he faced – 55.6%)

First Pitch Strike
* Batting Average: .267
* Walks: 0
* Strike outs: 2
* On-base percentage: .267

First Pitch Ball
* Batting Average: .222
* Walks: 3
* Strike outs: 3
* On-base percentage: .556

* Pujols:

Pujols was 0-2 with a strikeout and the strikeout came at the most crucial point in the entire game. Lincecum more than held his own against arguably the most dangerous hitter in baseball.

* Run Support

Run support, or lack thereof, will be the biggest topic of the season for the 2008 Giants. In Saturday’s game, the Giants offense did just enough to get the win and that is all you can ask. By giving Lincecum an early lead, the Giants were able to play with confidence and you could see it when Taschner, Walker and Wilson took the mound. None of them wanted to blow the lead for their ace.


Interesting Moment from Yesterday’s Game:

Did anyone notice what Lincecum did after he struck out Ankiel in the fourth inning!?

Let me set the stage for you:

Schumacker (also known as Skip “I don’t know what everyone sees in this kid because I own him” Schumacker) and Duncan started off the inning with back-to-back singles to bring up Pujols. As you know, Pujols misses a 3-2 curveball by a foot and strikes out but both batters advance on the ball in the dirt.

This brings us to what I like to call the “Sit on it” moment in the game.

So Ankiel gets up there with runners in scoring position and proceeds to strike out on 4 pitches including a wave at curveball that strikes him out. Ankiel slams his bat down and walks back to the dugout.

(Now, we all know that Lincecum shows little to no emotion when he is on the mound. As a result, we (everyone on the planet) have no idea what he is thinking.)

HOWEVER

As Ankiel is walking back to the dugout, Lincecum is straddling the rubber waiting for the sign but his eyes are not on the catcher but on Ankiel. He proceeds to not look over at Ankiel once but TWICE. His entire body (including his head) did not move at all but his eyes could not help but look over at the Cardinals dugout. For the first time you could see what Lincecum was thinking: “Sit on it”

“Sit on it” = You just struck out and you are really mad about it but there is nothing you can do but sit on the bench and think about it.


From the Visiting Announcers:

I have decided to add a new section to this report that discusses what the other team’s announcers are saying about the Giants and/or their own team. Since I watch all Giants games on MLB Extra Innings, I do not always get the luxury of listening to Kruk and Kuip.

Let me just start off with saying the Cardinals television announcers are the worst in the league. The play-by-play guy and the color guy hate each other and they might actually be in separate rooms announcing the same game.

During the game they mentioned two things that were interesting:

1) They think Lincecum is a right-handed Sandy Koufax.

The color guy was very complimentary of Lincecum and they said numerous times that they thought he was the best young pitcher in the National League. Lincecum solidified his first two CY Young votes when he struck out Pujols in the 4th inning. At one point, I thought I was listening to the home broadcast because of all the compliments being thrown around.

2) They don’t understand why McGuire doesn’t come to spring training.

The play-by-play guy went as far as questioning why McGuire would not want to come to spring training to answer all the allegations surrounding his home run totals. Giants fans catch a lot of flack from other teams for our support of Bonds but the Cardinals announcers proved on Saturday that everyone is blind to the steroid users when the player is on your team.

Lincecum Report – Start #4

I apologize in advance for the briefness of this post.  The transition of the working the corners HQs from NYC to SD is taking a lot of my time.

Last Start:

Ironically, his last start was against the Cardinals and he continued his strong start to the season by striking out 11 and walking only 1.  The most impressive part of the start was his confidence in his fastball and his unwillingness to change his game plan.  Even after the Cardinals started hitting his first pitch fastball.  So far each one of his starts has given us a new reason to believe we are watching a truly elite pitcher.  

Stat line (from the last game):

IP: 6, K: 11, BB: 1, H: 6, ER: 2

Stat line (for the season):

IP: 16, K: 22, BB: 6, H: 17, ER: 4

Pitching Psychology:

This game is a little different for the single reason that the Cardinals saw him last weekend so this start will be similar to a playoff start.  As a result, Lincecum will change his game plan ever so slightly to keep the Cardinals from sitting on his first pitch fastball.  However, his confidence remains high so I don't think he will stray to far from his fastball if he starts to get into trouble.  Again, Lincecum will be asked to win a game after following a loss and I think he enjoys that added pressure.

Opponent Overview:

I think I covered this last week so please refer to that column.

Three Things to Remember:

The 1st Pitch:

Last week, Lincecum threw a lot of first pitch strikes and the Cardinals were very successful at the start of the game because of it.  However, Lincecum stuck with his game plan of first pitch fastball strikes and it paid off in the end.  It will be interesting to see how much Lincecum start batters off something else besides the fastball.

Pujols:

Lincecum did not have to face the big man in the last start but I don't think he is going to get that luxury this time around.

Run Support:

The Giants have done a nice job of scoring enough runs to keep Lincecum in all of his starts.  If Lincecum gets behind early, can the Giants score enough runs to keep them in the game?  Furthermore, does Lineceum maintain his concentration even if the Cardinals put up a crooked number on the board early in the game.

Prediction:

I think my prediction from last week was just one week too early.  I think Lincecum over thinks this start by going with too many off speed pitches on the first pitch and he gets in trouble early.  While I think he will settle down, he cannot avoid the loss.

Giants 2 - Cardinals 7

IP: 5, K: 5, BB: 4, H: 6, ER: 4

The Warriors Season in Review: Invasion of the Dubbers

It is time to provide you with a look back on the 2008 season and a look forward into what is to come for the Warriors. But first we need to clear something up …

Quick Definitions:

There are generally three ways to refer to the Golden State Warriors and each tells you something about the person making the reference:

1) “Golden State” – a NBA fan who does not root for the Warriors

2) “The Warriors” – a Warriors fan who realizes that a) Gilbert Arenas once played for the Warriors, b) Mark Jackson could have actually helped the Warriors this year and c) the most important thing the Warriors can do is win a championship and making the playoffs just isn’t good enough any more (I like to refer to these people as WARRIORS FANS.)

3) “The Dubs” – a bandwagon Warriors fan who thinks a) Sleepy Floyd is the name of a smurf, b) Gary St. Jean is a prominent figure in the Catholic Church and c) making the playoffs as an eight seed is just super. (I like to refer to these people as THE DUBBERS.)


On with the article …

The Warriors season has come to a depressing end as the Warriors were the big loser when it came to the race for the 7th and 8th seeds. However, this Warriors team is one of the best I have ever watched and it is sad that an early season suspension was one of the main reasons they did not make the playoffs. Of course, the Dubbers are sad they did not make the playoffs because they wanted to see another “miracle” run. News Flash: the Warriors pulled off one of the biggest upsets in playoff history so they were not going to do it again. The Warriors are sad they did not make the playoffs for a completely different reason. We wanted to see the Warriors get swept by the Lakers

I know Dubbers – why would we want the Warriors (I am sorry, the Dubs) to lose?

Since the goal of all the Warriors fans out there is to see our beloved team win a championship, we would have enjoyed witnessing the Lakers completely dominate the series by owning the paint. The front office would get to witness first hand how Biedrens couldn’t guard Ronny Turiaf – let alone Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum. As a result, Mullin might actually have thought “wait a second, if I pay Biedrins $60 million over the next 6 years, I would be condemning the franchise to, at best, a second place finish in the West for the next 6 years.” Furthermore, he might have concluded “Brandon Wright is just as skilled an offensive player and I can put him at the 4 and commit money, trade exceptions and draft picks to acquiring a big man who can guard a legitimate scoring threat down low.” Unfortunetly, the Warriors failed to make the playoffs and Mullin promised to keep Biedrins which assures us of the Warriors lack of commitment to winning a championship. Of course, he did commit to keeping Monta so we have something to look forward to.


Speaking of Monta...

He did the impossible this year – he united the Warriors fans and the Dubbers by having both parties agree that we have never been this excited about a young player on the Warriors (I guess I should not say that because Warriors fans were probably more excited about Webber but Dubbers have no idea that Webber used to be good so I guess my statement remains true). As I mentioned in my IT player article, Monta will be (if he isn’t already) an IT player and no team in the NBA can win a NBA championship without one. So having Monta puts us ahead of every Warriors team from 1997 to 2001. Of course, I would love to point out an article I wrote a couple of years ago to prove that I knew he was going to be an IT player before anyone else but I did not have this website until this time last year. So I am left to provide you with something I wrote to a bunch of Dubbers on the San Jose Mercury website before game 4 of the Warriors-Jazz series last year –

The biggest mistake the Warriors have made during this entire playoff run is not playing Monta at least 30 minutes a night. The only thing we are playing for is the right to get pasted by the Spurs in 4 games. If we are interested in winning championships, we need to develop our greatest asset since Arenas. If Monta goes out there and embarrasses himself (like Kobe did during his first playoff run), who cares!! He needs to get battle tested now because a backcourt of Davis, Monta (w/playoff experience) and Stephen Jackson is a championship contender for the next 5 years.
If Monta does not get significant playing time over the rest of this playoff run, it does not matter what the scoreboard says - we lose.
It goes without saying that the Dubbers and the author of the article thought I had no clue what I was talking about. Shocking!


On to Baron …

There are people who actually think we should not keep him and I have to admit they are not all Dubbers. There is no valid explanation for this sentiment. Most of the suggestions out there are to go out and acquire a “Deron Williams or Chris Paul type PG”. Am I the only Warriors fan who has been watching the NBA for more than the past two seasons!? Point guards don’t just fall out of the sky. Teams that finish just out of the playoffs rarely get the opportunity to draft in the top 3 which pretty much eliminates their chances of drafting an elite point guard. Those teams fortunate enough to have an elite point guard are not going to trade them or let them go somewhere else through free agency. So we are “stuck” with Baron Davis who is still an IT player and should have been an All-Star this year. He makes the Warriors engine run and he aided in the maturation of Stephen Jackson both on and off the court. The Warriors need Baron a lot more than people think.

Here are a few things to think about:

Kobe Bryant is going to win the MVP this year (he deserves it). He has played 866 NBA games and turns 30 in August. I dare you to find anyone (and I mean anyone) who thinks Kobe is any of the following …

1) Over the hill
2) in the twilight of his career
3) destined to be less than an impact player over the next three years

Baron Davis did not make the all-star team this year, has played 608 NBA games and turned 29 on April 13th. I dare you to find anyone who thinks Baron is

1) going to play with a chip on his shoulder next year because everyone thinks he is done
2) a lock to be an impact player over the next 4 years because he has only played 608 games.
3) finally healthy and ready to reach his draft day potential

My point is that both of these guys are far from done and I would not bet against either of them. Just think about it)


On to the draft …

Generally speaking, the worst pick to have is the 14th pick because it means you were not good enough to make the playoffs but you were not bad enough to get a top pick. Normally, I would say the team with the 14th pick is stuck in NBA no man’s land but the Warriors are one big acquisition (NOT through the draft) away from becoming a top 8 team in the NBA. As a result, this year’s draft holds little to no meaning for the near-term success of the team unless they pick a player who is NBA ready both physically and mentally.

There are two schools of thought when it comes to the NBA draft:

1) Take the best player available
2) Pick the player that can help the team immediately

Normally, I would go with the best player available but there seems to be one player (who will be available at pick number 14) that can help the Warriors from day one. So with the 14th pick overall the Warriors select:

James Dorsey from Memphis University

Ok, I know what you are thinking – “Stephen Jackson and now James Dorsey!? Are we turning into the Cowboys of the NBA?”

In a word – Yes

The Warriors need rebounding and interior defense right now and James Dorsey has the potential to fill those needs immediately. Not to mention he is 24 years old and has an NBA ready body. Sure he comes with a lot of baggage but who would be a better mentor than Captain Jack? I love the idea of plugging him right into the rotation as a 20 minute a night guy who grabs 7 boards and fouls out in the middle of the 3rd quarter. The bottom line is he is worth the risk, so bring on James Dorsey!

(On a side note, you never know how a guy is going to react when he starts getting paid a lot of money to play basketball. Some guys are going to flame out early on and others are going to play like it is their last game every night. I am not sure which category James Dorsey falls into but I know he is going to fall in one or another. Well worth the risk at this point.)

So what do we have to look forward to this offseason and next year?


The Off-Season...

Nellie, Baron, Monta and Biedrins will all return. 3 out of 4 is not bad.

The reason Nellie comes back is because Mullin is going to make a big move this off-season. I have no idea what that move is, but I know it is coming. You have all read my suggestions in the past and they still hold true today so I will not go over them again. Regardless, Mullin knows that this team is a seven or eight seed if they do nothing and with the inevitable improvement of the Blazers, it is time for the Warriors to “keep up with the Joneses”. Could we see a Josh Smith or Andrew Bogut in our future? You never know.


Next Year….

(Instead of trying to predict what kind of moves the Warriors are going to make, I will give a more macro vision for the 2008-2009 season.)

I think the Warriors break with tradition and go for the gold. The front office knows that the Warriors can play with the Lakers if they get some defensive help down low. Through a couple of acquisitions, the Warriors will get a few defensive minded inside players and the big three will turn in a season to remember (people always forget that it takes time for basketball players to get used to playing with each other. Season number three for Baron, Jackson and Monta is going to be special). In addition, the newly found interior defense will allow the Warriors gambling style of defense to be even more effective than it was this past season. The combination of an exceptional season from the big three and the newly formed interior defense will make the 2008-2009 Warriors the best team we have seen in my lifetime (since 1978).

The (early) Prediction: The Warriors race past the Mavs, Nuggets, Rockets and Suns to the 5th seed in the West. They beat the Spurs in the first round and pull off the upset that no one will ever forget when they beat the defending NBA champion Lakers in 7 games. However, they run into their kryptonite in the Conference Finals and lose to the Jazz.

Until next time....

Wait, what am I saying!?!? Chris Cohan bought the Warriors with the single purpose of making money and he knows that the Dubbers will come out in force no matter how big or small the payroll is. There is no chance the Warriors get any kind of impact players down low as Cohan has little desire to take the risk of having a higher payroll and not making the playoffs. Even though we all know he would make more money by going to the conference finals (ever heard of you have to spend money to make money?). In the end, the Dubbers meaningless patronage is to blame for our lack of a championship (not to mention the wave).

I have no choice but to move back to CA and unite the Warriors fans. I am not about to let a bunch of Dubbers ruin my chance at a championship!!

Who's with me?