Lincecum Report – Start #5 - Preview

Last Start:

Lincecum’s last start was easily his best. He threw more innings and was significantly more economical with his pitches. While many people will point to his reduced strike out total as a negative, I think it was a positive because it saved his pitch count from getting too high in the early innings. As far as I am concerned, the deeper Lincecum can get in the game the better chance the Giants have to win. This start is a perfect example of what the Giants need to be successful when Lincecum pitches.

Stat line (for the last game):
IP: 7, K: 5, BB: 3, H: 6, ER: 0

Stat line (for the season):
IP: 23, K: 27, BB: 9, H: 23, ER: 4


Pitching Psychology:

In what is now becoming his normal mindset, Lincecum will come into this game continuing to think that he is going to dominate the opposing team. If his last 4 starts were not enough to get him in the right mind set for this start, the Padres offense and PETCO Park should have him thinking no-hitter. At this point, I don’t see how he could not be thinking he is one of the best pitchers in the National League.


Opponent Overview:

In breaking news, it is hard to score runs at PETCO Park and the Padres have a hard time scoring runs in any park. These two facts are the main reasons why the Padres come into this game against Lincecum and the Giants in last place (tied with the Giants). The Padres organization has to be frustrated by their slow start and there are no signs that their current roster has the ability to turn this thing around. While it is only April, I have to believe a lot of the players on this team have to be wondering when big changes could be coming.


Three Things to Remember:

The 1st Pitch:
I would expect Lincecum to go right after the Padres team with first pitch fastball strikes. This game has all the makings for his first complete game of the season if he starts out aggressive and he stays aggressive in the strike zone.

Hit an Inning
The one knock on Lincecum this year (and this proves that all statistics have their limitations) is that he is giving up a hit an inning. If he continues this trend, he will get burned eventually. If he starts to reduce the number of hits he gives up, the CY Young talk will start to heat up.

The Look:
If there is only one thing you want to look for tonight, it is The Look. If you do not know what the The Look is. Please read my last Lincecum report.


Prediction:

I am off the Lincecum-is-going-to-be-over-confident band wagon and I am on the this-game-has-the-makings-for-something-special band wagon. Lincecum is going to use his fastball more than he has in the past two starts and blow away the Padres hitters.

Final Score:
Giants 3 – Padres 1

Lincecum’s Stat Line
IP: 8, K: 8, BB: 2, H: 2, ER: 1

Lincecum Report – Start #4 - Review

Prediction:

IP: 5, K: 5, BB: 4, H: 6, ER: 4

“I think my prediction from last week was just one week too early. I think Lincecum over thinks this start by going with too many off speed-pitches on the first pitch and he gets into trouble early. While I think he will settle down, he cannot avoid the loss.”


Actual:

IP: 7, K: 5, BB: 3, H: 6, ER: 0

I guess if things really do come in threes I would bet against my prediction for this Thursday because I have been completely wrong for the second start in a row. Lincecum did give up 6 hits again but made every big pitch when he needed to. The numbers do not reflect how efficient and effective this start was


Overall Thoughts:

Lincecum is quickly moving into the world of “best Giants pitcher since Juan Marichal” territory. Of course, he has some tough competition from some of the other past phenoms to come through the system – does William Vanlandingham ring a bell?

In this start, Lincecum did two things that showed maturity that we have not seen from him up until this point in his very brief career

1) He threw numerous 92 mph fastballs that were turned into double plays because the hitters were way out in front of the ball (Duncan, Molina and Washington). As far back as last Sunday, he would have gone for the strikeout over the ground ball. If he sticks with his old strategy, he only makes through 5 instead of 7.

2) He gave Pujols an unintentional, intentional walk in the 6th so he could pitch to the completely overmatched Ankiel – who flew out to left field.

To put this into context, Josh Beckett (despite winning a World Series in 2003) did not learn either of these two strategies until the 2006 season (he made his major league debut in 2001). If Lincecum starts to do either or both of things on a regular basis, someone might want to tell Webb and Peavey that their reign over the CY Young might be short-lived.

Of course, all of that could have happened on accident and Lincecum could be a 5 inning a start pitcher for the rest of the year. Only time will tell.


Grading His Performance:

Similar to what I did two weeks ago, I am going to focus on the negative because focusing on the positive would make this article 10 pages long. I think Lincecum – unofficially – threw 10 belt-high, right over the middle of the plate fastballs on Saturday and none of them were hit hard. There are two conclusions that can be reached from this fact.

A) The Cardinals went up there guessing and were not looking fastball when they got them.

OR

B) Lincecum’s motion is so distracting/disceptive that batters just cannot pick up the pitch quick enough to get good wood on the ball.

I will go with choice B).

Grade: A


Three Things to Remember:

* The 1st Pitch

Here are Lincecum’s first pitch stats from Saturday’s game:

(He threw a first pitch strike to 15 of the 27 batters he faced – 55.6%)

First Pitch Strike
* Batting Average: .267
* Walks: 0
* Strike outs: 2
* On-base percentage: .267

First Pitch Ball
* Batting Average: .222
* Walks: 3
* Strike outs: 3
* On-base percentage: .556

* Pujols:

Pujols was 0-2 with a strikeout and the strikeout came at the most crucial point in the entire game. Lincecum more than held his own against arguably the most dangerous hitter in baseball.

* Run Support

Run support, or lack thereof, will be the biggest topic of the season for the 2008 Giants. In Saturday’s game, the Giants offense did just enough to get the win and that is all you can ask. By giving Lincecum an early lead, the Giants were able to play with confidence and you could see it when Taschner, Walker and Wilson took the mound. None of them wanted to blow the lead for their ace.


Interesting Moment from Yesterday’s Game:

Did anyone notice what Lincecum did after he struck out Ankiel in the fourth inning!?

Let me set the stage for you:

Schumacker (also known as Skip “I don’t know what everyone sees in this kid because I own him” Schumacker) and Duncan started off the inning with back-to-back singles to bring up Pujols. As you know, Pujols misses a 3-2 curveball by a foot and strikes out but both batters advance on the ball in the dirt.

This brings us to what I like to call the “Sit on it” moment in the game.

So Ankiel gets up there with runners in scoring position and proceeds to strike out on 4 pitches including a wave at curveball that strikes him out. Ankiel slams his bat down and walks back to the dugout.

(Now, we all know that Lincecum shows little to no emotion when he is on the mound. As a result, we (everyone on the planet) have no idea what he is thinking.)

HOWEVER

As Ankiel is walking back to the dugout, Lincecum is straddling the rubber waiting for the sign but his eyes are not on the catcher but on Ankiel. He proceeds to not look over at Ankiel once but TWICE. His entire body (including his head) did not move at all but his eyes could not help but look over at the Cardinals dugout. For the first time you could see what Lincecum was thinking: “Sit on it”

“Sit on it” = You just struck out and you are really mad about it but there is nothing you can do but sit on the bench and think about it.


From the Visiting Announcers:

I have decided to add a new section to this report that discusses what the other team’s announcers are saying about the Giants and/or their own team. Since I watch all Giants games on MLB Extra Innings, I do not always get the luxury of listening to Kruk and Kuip.

Let me just start off with saying the Cardinals television announcers are the worst in the league. The play-by-play guy and the color guy hate each other and they might actually be in separate rooms announcing the same game.

During the game they mentioned two things that were interesting:

1) They think Lincecum is a right-handed Sandy Koufax.

The color guy was very complimentary of Lincecum and they said numerous times that they thought he was the best young pitcher in the National League. Lincecum solidified his first two CY Young votes when he struck out Pujols in the 4th inning. At one point, I thought I was listening to the home broadcast because of all the compliments being thrown around.

2) They don’t understand why McGuire doesn’t come to spring training.

The play-by-play guy went as far as questioning why McGuire would not want to come to spring training to answer all the allegations surrounding his home run totals. Giants fans catch a lot of flack from other teams for our support of Bonds but the Cardinals announcers proved on Saturday that everyone is blind to the steroid users when the player is on your team.

Lincecum Report – Start #4

I apologize in advance for the briefness of this post.  The transition of the working the corners HQs from NYC to SD is taking a lot of my time.

Last Start:

Ironically, his last start was against the Cardinals and he continued his strong start to the season by striking out 11 and walking only 1.  The most impressive part of the start was his confidence in his fastball and his unwillingness to change his game plan.  Even after the Cardinals started hitting his first pitch fastball.  So far each one of his starts has given us a new reason to believe we are watching a truly elite pitcher.  

Stat line (from the last game):

IP: 6, K: 11, BB: 1, H: 6, ER: 2

Stat line (for the season):

IP: 16, K: 22, BB: 6, H: 17, ER: 4

Pitching Psychology:

This game is a little different for the single reason that the Cardinals saw him last weekend so this start will be similar to a playoff start.  As a result, Lincecum will change his game plan ever so slightly to keep the Cardinals from sitting on his first pitch fastball.  However, his confidence remains high so I don't think he will stray to far from his fastball if he starts to get into trouble.  Again, Lincecum will be asked to win a game after following a loss and I think he enjoys that added pressure.

Opponent Overview:

I think I covered this last week so please refer to that column.

Three Things to Remember:

The 1st Pitch:

Last week, Lincecum threw a lot of first pitch strikes and the Cardinals were very successful at the start of the game because of it.  However, Lincecum stuck with his game plan of first pitch fastball strikes and it paid off in the end.  It will be interesting to see how much Lincecum start batters off something else besides the fastball.

Pujols:

Lincecum did not have to face the big man in the last start but I don't think he is going to get that luxury this time around.

Run Support:

The Giants have done a nice job of scoring enough runs to keep Lincecum in all of his starts.  If Lincecum gets behind early, can the Giants score enough runs to keep them in the game?  Furthermore, does Lineceum maintain his concentration even if the Cardinals put up a crooked number on the board early in the game.

Prediction:

I think my prediction from last week was just one week too early.  I think Lincecum over thinks this start by going with too many off speed pitches on the first pitch and he gets in trouble early.  While I think he will settle down, he cannot avoid the loss.

Giants 2 - Cardinals 7

IP: 5, K: 5, BB: 4, H: 6, ER: 4

The Warriors Season in Review: Invasion of the Dubbers

It is time to provide you with a look back on the 2008 season and a look forward into what is to come for the Warriors. But first we need to clear something up …

Quick Definitions:

There are generally three ways to refer to the Golden State Warriors and each tells you something about the person making the reference:

1) “Golden State” – a NBA fan who does not root for the Warriors

2) “The Warriors” – a Warriors fan who realizes that a) Gilbert Arenas once played for the Warriors, b) Mark Jackson could have actually helped the Warriors this year and c) the most important thing the Warriors can do is win a championship and making the playoffs just isn’t good enough any more (I like to refer to these people as WARRIORS FANS.)

3) “The Dubs” – a bandwagon Warriors fan who thinks a) Sleepy Floyd is the name of a smurf, b) Gary St. Jean is a prominent figure in the Catholic Church and c) making the playoffs as an eight seed is just super. (I like to refer to these people as THE DUBBERS.)


On with the article …

The Warriors season has come to a depressing end as the Warriors were the big loser when it came to the race for the 7th and 8th seeds. However, this Warriors team is one of the best I have ever watched and it is sad that an early season suspension was one of the main reasons they did not make the playoffs. Of course, the Dubbers are sad they did not make the playoffs because they wanted to see another “miracle” run. News Flash: the Warriors pulled off one of the biggest upsets in playoff history so they were not going to do it again. The Warriors are sad they did not make the playoffs for a completely different reason. We wanted to see the Warriors get swept by the Lakers

I know Dubbers – why would we want the Warriors (I am sorry, the Dubs) to lose?

Since the goal of all the Warriors fans out there is to see our beloved team win a championship, we would have enjoyed witnessing the Lakers completely dominate the series by owning the paint. The front office would get to witness first hand how Biedrens couldn’t guard Ronny Turiaf – let alone Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum. As a result, Mullin might actually have thought “wait a second, if I pay Biedrins $60 million over the next 6 years, I would be condemning the franchise to, at best, a second place finish in the West for the next 6 years.” Furthermore, he might have concluded “Brandon Wright is just as skilled an offensive player and I can put him at the 4 and commit money, trade exceptions and draft picks to acquiring a big man who can guard a legitimate scoring threat down low.” Unfortunetly, the Warriors failed to make the playoffs and Mullin promised to keep Biedrins which assures us of the Warriors lack of commitment to winning a championship. Of course, he did commit to keeping Monta so we have something to look forward to.


Speaking of Monta...

He did the impossible this year – he united the Warriors fans and the Dubbers by having both parties agree that we have never been this excited about a young player on the Warriors (I guess I should not say that because Warriors fans were probably more excited about Webber but Dubbers have no idea that Webber used to be good so I guess my statement remains true). As I mentioned in my IT player article, Monta will be (if he isn’t already) an IT player and no team in the NBA can win a NBA championship without one. So having Monta puts us ahead of every Warriors team from 1997 to 2001. Of course, I would love to point out an article I wrote a couple of years ago to prove that I knew he was going to be an IT player before anyone else but I did not have this website until this time last year. So I am left to provide you with something I wrote to a bunch of Dubbers on the San Jose Mercury website before game 4 of the Warriors-Jazz series last year –

The biggest mistake the Warriors have made during this entire playoff run is not playing Monta at least 30 minutes a night. The only thing we are playing for is the right to get pasted by the Spurs in 4 games. If we are interested in winning championships, we need to develop our greatest asset since Arenas. If Monta goes out there and embarrasses himself (like Kobe did during his first playoff run), who cares!! He needs to get battle tested now because a backcourt of Davis, Monta (w/playoff experience) and Stephen Jackson is a championship contender for the next 5 years.
If Monta does not get significant playing time over the rest of this playoff run, it does not matter what the scoreboard says - we lose.
It goes without saying that the Dubbers and the author of the article thought I had no clue what I was talking about. Shocking!


On to Baron …

There are people who actually think we should not keep him and I have to admit they are not all Dubbers. There is no valid explanation for this sentiment. Most of the suggestions out there are to go out and acquire a “Deron Williams or Chris Paul type PG”. Am I the only Warriors fan who has been watching the NBA for more than the past two seasons!? Point guards don’t just fall out of the sky. Teams that finish just out of the playoffs rarely get the opportunity to draft in the top 3 which pretty much eliminates their chances of drafting an elite point guard. Those teams fortunate enough to have an elite point guard are not going to trade them or let them go somewhere else through free agency. So we are “stuck” with Baron Davis who is still an IT player and should have been an All-Star this year. He makes the Warriors engine run and he aided in the maturation of Stephen Jackson both on and off the court. The Warriors need Baron a lot more than people think.

Here are a few things to think about:

Kobe Bryant is going to win the MVP this year (he deserves it). He has played 866 NBA games and turns 30 in August. I dare you to find anyone (and I mean anyone) who thinks Kobe is any of the following …

1) Over the hill
2) in the twilight of his career
3) destined to be less than an impact player over the next three years

Baron Davis did not make the all-star team this year, has played 608 NBA games and turned 29 on April 13th. I dare you to find anyone who thinks Baron is

1) going to play with a chip on his shoulder next year because everyone thinks he is done
2) a lock to be an impact player over the next 4 years because he has only played 608 games.
3) finally healthy and ready to reach his draft day potential

My point is that both of these guys are far from done and I would not bet against either of them. Just think about it)


On to the draft …

Generally speaking, the worst pick to have is the 14th pick because it means you were not good enough to make the playoffs but you were not bad enough to get a top pick. Normally, I would say the team with the 14th pick is stuck in NBA no man’s land but the Warriors are one big acquisition (NOT through the draft) away from becoming a top 8 team in the NBA. As a result, this year’s draft holds little to no meaning for the near-term success of the team unless they pick a player who is NBA ready both physically and mentally.

There are two schools of thought when it comes to the NBA draft:

1) Take the best player available
2) Pick the player that can help the team immediately

Normally, I would go with the best player available but there seems to be one player (who will be available at pick number 14) that can help the Warriors from day one. So with the 14th pick overall the Warriors select:

James Dorsey from Memphis University

Ok, I know what you are thinking – “Stephen Jackson and now James Dorsey!? Are we turning into the Cowboys of the NBA?”

In a word – Yes

The Warriors need rebounding and interior defense right now and James Dorsey has the potential to fill those needs immediately. Not to mention he is 24 years old and has an NBA ready body. Sure he comes with a lot of baggage but who would be a better mentor than Captain Jack? I love the idea of plugging him right into the rotation as a 20 minute a night guy who grabs 7 boards and fouls out in the middle of the 3rd quarter. The bottom line is he is worth the risk, so bring on James Dorsey!

(On a side note, you never know how a guy is going to react when he starts getting paid a lot of money to play basketball. Some guys are going to flame out early on and others are going to play like it is their last game every night. I am not sure which category James Dorsey falls into but I know he is going to fall in one or another. Well worth the risk at this point.)

So what do we have to look forward to this offseason and next year?


The Off-Season...

Nellie, Baron, Monta and Biedrins will all return. 3 out of 4 is not bad.

The reason Nellie comes back is because Mullin is going to make a big move this off-season. I have no idea what that move is, but I know it is coming. You have all read my suggestions in the past and they still hold true today so I will not go over them again. Regardless, Mullin knows that this team is a seven or eight seed if they do nothing and with the inevitable improvement of the Blazers, it is time for the Warriors to “keep up with the Joneses”. Could we see a Josh Smith or Andrew Bogut in our future? You never know.


Next Year….

(Instead of trying to predict what kind of moves the Warriors are going to make, I will give a more macro vision for the 2008-2009 season.)

I think the Warriors break with tradition and go for the gold. The front office knows that the Warriors can play with the Lakers if they get some defensive help down low. Through a couple of acquisitions, the Warriors will get a few defensive minded inside players and the big three will turn in a season to remember (people always forget that it takes time for basketball players to get used to playing with each other. Season number three for Baron, Jackson and Monta is going to be special). In addition, the newly found interior defense will allow the Warriors gambling style of defense to be even more effective than it was this past season. The combination of an exceptional season from the big three and the newly formed interior defense will make the 2008-2009 Warriors the best team we have seen in my lifetime (since 1978).

The (early) Prediction: The Warriors race past the Mavs, Nuggets, Rockets and Suns to the 5th seed in the West. They beat the Spurs in the first round and pull off the upset that no one will ever forget when they beat the defending NBA champion Lakers in 7 games. However, they run into their kryptonite in the Conference Finals and lose to the Jazz.

Until next time....

Wait, what am I saying!?!? Chris Cohan bought the Warriors with the single purpose of making money and he knows that the Dubbers will come out in force no matter how big or small the payroll is. There is no chance the Warriors get any kind of impact players down low as Cohan has little desire to take the risk of having a higher payroll and not making the playoffs. Even though we all know he would make more money by going to the conference finals (ever heard of you have to spend money to make money?). In the end, the Dubbers meaningless patronage is to blame for our lack of a championship (not to mention the wave).

I have no choice but to move back to CA and unite the Warriors fans. I am not about to let a bunch of Dubbers ruin my chance at a championship!!

Who's with me?

Lincecum Report – Start #3 - Review

Prediction:

IP: 5, K: 5, BB: 4, H: 6, ER: 4

“This game has young pitcher over-confidence and over-preparation written all over it. I think Lincecum fails to locate his pitches and ends up giving up a couple of big extra base hits. The Giants are going to lose and I don’t think it will be as close as most would predict”

Actual:

IP: 6, K: 11, BB: 1, H: 6, ER: 2

At least I got the hits right.

I could not have been more wrong about what happened yesterday. Lincecum pounded the strike zone and continued to be aggressive in the zone even after the Cardinals strung together 3 straight hits in the 3^rd inning. While he did leave a few pitches over the middle of the plate, the big extra base hit never arrived. To say my prediction was inaccurate would be an understatement.

Overall Thoughts:

First of all, LaRussa gave Lincecum and the Giants a gift by not starting Pujols. Their line-up was considerably weaker than normal and that favorably influenced Lincecum’s final strike out numbers. Of course, this should not be viewed as a knock on Lincecum because most of those guys are legitimate major league hitters and he cannot control the line-ups he faces.

To me, the biggest thing to take away from this game was the poise and confidence Lincecum showed on the mound. As I preach to anyone who will listen, throwing first pitch strikes is crucial to having a good start. Similar to my prediction, the first three innings proved my theory is not always valid. Here are the numbers Lincecum had posted when Righetti made his visit to the mound.

IP: 2.2, Total Pitches: 62, K: 5, BB: 1, ER: 2

Up to this point in the game, the Cardinals were hitting .500 when Lincecum started the batter off with a strike. In addition, the last three batters had all seen first pitch strikes and all three got a hits.

During the visit to the mound, Krukow made a very astute observation by saying the Cardinals were sitting on Lincecum’s first pitch fastball so he needed to mix in something different. While I would normally agree with Krukow, it doesn’t hold water when you are talking about Lincecum and his start to the season. Lincecum does not have enough control of his change-up or curveball to throw it for a strike with any kind of consistency. Taking this fact into account and the fact that batters are hitting a combined .174 when Lincecum starts them out with a strike, the overwhelming odds suggest that he should start the next hitter off with a first pitch fastball.

So what happened …

First pitch fastball right down the middle of the plate for a strike (as the hitter was probably looking for something off speed after seeing the visit to the mound) and an eventual swinging strike out to end the inning. Despite giving up three consecutive hits, Lincecum remained confident in his best pitch (the fastball) and got out of the inning.

Grading His Performance:

As I mentioned above, Lincecum got knocked around in the first three innings and he looked destined to be out of the game by the end of the 5^th. However, in his last three innings, he faced 10 hitters and struck out 5 of them. Most young pitchers would have lost conviction in their stuff and struggled to get through another inning. Lincecum did the exact opposite by dominating the Cardinals in the 4^th, 5^th and 6th.

Grade: A-

(Honestly, I think Lincecum is even better than I thought he was. The fact that there are quite a few people calling for him to be traded so we can get some prospects is ridiculous. Out of all the pitchers under the age of 24, I think the Giants might have the best one)

Three Things to Remember:

* The 1^st Pitch:
Here are Lincecum’s first pitch stats from yesterday’s game:
(He threw a first pitch strike to 17 of the 24 batters he faced – 70.8%)

First Pitch Strike:
* Batting Average: .313
* Walks: 0
* Strike outs: 5
* On-base percentage: .313

For the Season:
* First Strike %: 62.3
* Batting Average: .231
* Walks: 1
* Strike outs: 11
* On-base percentage: .279

First Pitch Ball:
* Batting Average: .200
* Walks: 1
* Strike outs: 6
* On-base percentage: .500

For the Season:
* Batting Average: .400
* Walks: 4
* Strike outs: 11
* On-base percentage: .500

A rough game for the first pitch strike theory but it is going to happen once in awhile

* Duncan, Pujols and Ankiel:
Duncan: 2 for 3 with a double
Pujols: Did not face Lincecum
Ankiel: 1 for 3 with a double and a RBI

This game would have been real interesting if Pujols was started. Lucky break for the Giants and Lincecum

* Location:
Even though he struck out 11 and walked only one, his location was not great and the evidence is the fact that he gave up an average of a hit an inning. It is obvious that Lincecum still struggles to control the considerable movement he has on his pitches. For now, he is going to leave a couple fastballs over the middle of the plate in each of his starts. As long as he doesn’t throw them to the wrong hitter, he will continue to post impressive numbers.

Interesting Moment from Yesterday’s Game:

I have watched 4 Giants games broadcast by the Giants television crew (sometimes Extra Innings gives you the other team’s broadcast team) and Krukow has only acknowledged this Amy person once. At what point are the Giants going to start to realize that sideline reporters in baseball are worthless unless they are named Peter Gammons.

Here are the three major reasons they don’t work:

1) Unless they are a former ball player (except for Peter Gammons), the broadcast team doesn’t respect them and it is obvious when you watch the broadcast.

2) What can they possibly add that the broadcast team cannot!?

3) Who in their right mind doesn’t want to turn off the TV and listen to John Miller on the radio when a soccer Mom (not in the good way) from Mill Valley comes on to talk about how much fun the party patio is?

It is only a matter of time until either Kruk or Kuip forgets to turnoff their mic and says something completely degrading about Amy on the air. Is it worth losing Kruk or Kuip over Amy?

I didn’t think so......

Until next time

Lincecum Report – Start #3 - Preview

Last Start:

Despite not being very economical with his pitches and only throwing 53.8% first pitch strikes, Lincecum was fantastic in his last start. It is hard to complain about 7 Ks to only 1 walk. What I enjoyed most about the last start was his ability to dominate an opponent he should control every time he takes the hill. Everyone is familiar with the concept of “playing down to your opponent” – well Lincecum did not fall into that trap and it was nice to see.

Stat line (for the last game):
IP: 6, K: 7, BB: 1, H: 7, ER: 1

Stat line (for the season):
IP: 10, K: 11, BB: 5, H: 11, ER: 2, ERA: 1.80

Pitching Psychology:

Lincecum has been charting pitches for the last three games and he is well aware that the Cardinals have struggled to score runs in the first 4 innings (1 run total in the first three games of the series). This fact and the last two starts have to give him a lot of confidence going into this start. I have to believe that Lincecum may come into this game with the most confidence he will have all season.

Opponent Overview:

The Cardinals have had a really nice start to their season. They have won in a variety of ways including being no hit for six innings and end up winning the game 8-7 in the game yesterday. The biggest surprise has been their starting pitching which was considered pathetic by most as the season started but they have been better than good. As for their offense – as all Giants fans know – if you have one dominant hitter in the middle of your lineup, you can easily disguise the shortcomings of the rest of the starting nine. Pulols has been his normal self - hitting .390 to start the season with 3 home runs. Now if the rest of the line-up gets it together (especially Ankiel, Glaus and Duncan), the Cardinals could be a serious contender come August.

Three Things to Remember:

The 1^st Pitch:
Lincecum will have to have a better first pitch percentage than he had against the Padres if he wants to post numbers similar against the Cardinals.

Duncan, Pujols and Ankiel:
I fully expect this to be the 2, 3 and 4 hitters for the Cardinals today and all three of these guys are serious threats to hit a home run every time they step to the plate. If Lincecum is able to keep the bases empty when facing any and all of these guys he should be in good shape. However, if he finds himself in the stretch with this part of the line-up coming to the plate, it could be a long day.

Location:
While locating your pitches is always important, it’s importance is magnified when you are facing a good fastball hitting team. If Lincecum is all over the place with his pitches early, he will be more susceptible to leaving a ball over the middle of plate to the wrong hitter.

Prediction:

This game has young pitcher over-confidence and over-preparation written all over it. I think Lincecum fails to locate his pitches and ends up giving up a couple of big extra base hits. The Giants are going to lose and I don’t think it will be as close as most would predict.

Final Score:
Cardinals 7 - Giants 2

Lincecum’s Stat Line:
IP: 5, K: 5, BB: 4, H: 6, ER: 4

Lincecum Report – Start #2 - Review

Prediction:

IP: 7, K: 7, BB: 2, H: 3, ER: 1

“I think the Giants win tonight. Lincecum will be coming into the game with some confidence and he will keep it close by holding the Padres offense in check. If the Giants realize they can still win the game by the seventh, they will find a way to scrape together enough runs for the team to be successful.”

Actual:

IP: 6, K: 7, BB: 1, H: 7, ER: 1

I think the Giants win tonight. Lincecum will be coming into the game with some confidence and he will keep it close by holding the Padres offense in check. If the Giants realize they can still win the game by the seventh, they will find a way to scrape together enough runs for the team to be successful.

(Ok, a home run in the bottom of the 11^th is not exactly scraping together a run but I would say my prediction was pretty much spot on)

Overall Thoughts:

Last night’s game is about as good as it is going to get this year. A near dominant pitching performance from one of our starters and it takes a couple solo home runs to get the win because the idea of manufacturing a run is about as foreign as building a winning team through the draft for the Giants. As with any victory by a Bay Area team I can find something horribly wrong with the game so here are my quick hitters in bullet points:

* If a major league outfielder has a ball bounce of his glove and he (A) did not dive to make the catch (B) did not run into a wall or another player and (C) did not fall down after almost making the catch – there is NO way that the play can be ruled a hit. (It is amazing to me that Tim Lincecum cannot get a break from his home official score keeper)

* Let me get this straight - we are playing Ortmeier out of position so Aurilla can hit .160? Makes sense to me.

* If the Giants had 4 outs to their opponents 3, the Giants would still not win 80 games this year. So why in the world would you have your number 3 hitter (also known as the biggest free agent acquisition of the off-season) bunt with two guys on a no outs!? The reason is obvious. The secret internal memo from MacBaer (the new name for the double headed monster known as Peter Macgowan and Larry Baer) should clear up any confusion …

Dear Manager Bochy,

When Tim Lincecum is pitching you need to play the game like it is the seventh game of the World Series because he is our only hope of having a sell out after May. If you fail to play with this level of urgency, we will black mail you into quitting.

Truly yours,

MacBaer

Personally, I thought is was against the collective bargaining agreement to bunt a 3 hitter before June but this year’s Giants team is going to blaze many new trails for pathetic organizations to follow for years to come.

Grading His Performance:

Instead of saying everything he did right, I am going to focus on the negative.

* He needs to be more economical about his pitches

* There is no reason any pitcher should ever get to a two ball count against Lincecum let alone a full count.

* That’s it

Grade: A-

(If you start the game, you have to go at least 7 innings to get an A)

Three Things to Remember:

* The 1^st Pitch

Here are Lincecum’s first pitch stats from last night’s game:

(He threw a first pitch strike to 14 of the 26 batters he faced – 53.8%)

First Pitch Strike
* Batting Average: .214
* Walks: 0
* Strike outs: 4
* On-base percentage: .286

For the Season
* First Strike %: 57.8
* Batting Average: .174
* Walks: 1
* Strike outs: 6
* On-base percentage: .269

First Pitch Ball
* Batting Average: .400
* Walks: 1
* Strike outs: 3
* On-base percentage: .500

For the Season:
* Batting Average: .467
* Walks: 3
* Strike outs: 5
* On-base percentage: .579

First pitch seems to be working pretty well at this point

* Start Down, Stay Down
The Giants started with a lead so they gave themselves a chance to win. Nice to see

* Pedro Martinez
Easily my favorite part of the game was when Lincecum hit Jim Edmunds. It was not exactly the best time to do it (with two runners on and no outs) but it was nice to see. The more he does it, the more batters are going to be afraid to dig in against him. Lets see if he continues to work a little too far inside as the season goes on.

Interesting Moment from Yesterday’s Game

To me, the most interesting part of the game was when a tall, lankey right handed Dominican pitcher came out of the bullpen to hold a one run lead and that pitcher was wearing the number 47. I almost had a heart attack! Of course, Valdez did a nice job and the Padres failed to score in the 7^th.

However, my reaction got me thinking. Why don’t teams retire numbers that bring back such bad memories? If you are a true Giants fan, you have to cringe when you see the number 47 come out of the bullpen. There is no reason to bring back memories of the 2002 World Series and countless other blown opportunities by Felix Rodriguez. Will someone in the Giants organization please give Merkin a new number!? I think the die hard fans deserve it (especially given the fact that we are going to stay loyal throughout this season)

Until next time

Lincecum Report – Preview Start #2 (actually #1)

Last Start

To say his last start (relief appearance) was unconventional – would be an understatement. I would like to know how many starting pitchers have made their season debut by starting the 4^th inning of the game they were supposed to start. If I was to take a guess, I would say nobody.

As for the performance, he did an adequate job staying ahead of hitters which led to the Giants only victory of the season. Besides throwing first pitch strikes, he also mixed in enough first pitch strikes to keep the Dodgers from sitting on his fastball (which is hard to do even when you know it is coming). As I said in my review, I think he did an outstanding job.

Stat line (for the last game):
IP: 4, K: 4, BB: 4, H: 4, ER: 1

Stat line (for the season):
IP: 4, K: 4, BB: 4, H: 4, ER: 1

Pitching Psychology

As expected, the Giants are awful. They have played three good teams not great teams and they have lost every game except for Lincecum’s one appearance. While the team is bad, Lincecum’s confidence has to be high as it is now obvious that he will be one of the few bright spots for the 2008 Giants. Pitchers at any level feed off of being the ace of the staff and Major league pitchers are no different. Lincecum should be coming into this start with the confidence of an ace and the desire to get the first home win of the season. This frame of mind can only help the Giants in tonight’s game.

Opponent Overview

The Padres come into tonight’s game with a 5-3 record. No matter who is pitching, the rest of the NL West knows that they should win every series they play against the Giants. Tonight should be no different as they have a solid veteran starter in Randy Wolf going and the mental edge over the Giants (save Lincecum). However, the Padres line-up is less than menacing and should be considered their Achilles heal when it comes to their chances of winning the NL West. Lincecum should be able to keep the Giants within striking distance as the game moves into the later innings.

Three Things to Remember

The 1^st Pitch
I am not sure when this point will be removed from the list of things to remember but I can promise you that it will not be in April. Lincecum needs to continue what he started in his last appearance by starting hitters off with strikes. His stuff is too good to do anything but pound the strike zone.

Start Down, Stay Down
When you pitch for a bad team, you need to keep the game close from the beginning. The Giants are incapable of coming back from multi-run deficits for two reasons:

(1) Once the Giants get down by 2 or more in the early innings, the entire team (and fans if they are at home) start the “here we go again” chant and the team is in a defeatist mindset before they even step up to the plate

(2) The Giants need at least three hits to score a run as nobody is a real threat to hit a home run.

If Lincecum gives up a couple of runs in the first three innings, you might as well pull out that book you always wanted to read because the game is over.

Pedro Martinez
Another logical step for Lincecum is turning into an intimidator. The more he backs hitters off the plate, the more dominant he will become. Pedro Martinez set the standard for this style of pitching for guys weighing less than 160 pounds and Lincecum should follow his lead.

Prediction

I think the Giants win tonight. Lincecum will be coming into the game with some confidence and he will keep it close by holding the Padres offense in check. If the Giants realize they can still win the game by the seventh, they will find a way to scrape together enough runs for the team to be successful.

Final Score:
Padres 3 - Giants 4

Lincecum’s Stat Line
IP: 7, K: 7, BB: 2, H: 3, ER: 1

Lincecum Report – Start #1 - Review

Prediction:

IP: 6, K: 6, BB: 3, H: 5, ER: 4

“TL is going to come out of the gates pressing and over throwing which will result in too many Dodger runs for the Giants to overcome. The final score will match opening day 5-0 Dodgers.”

Result:

IP: 4, K: 4, BB: 4, H: 4, ER: 1

All things considered (a rain delay in Los Angeles, TL not starting the game, etc..), I made a decent prediction of his performance. He did seem to overthrow at times but he was really sharp when he needed to be which resulted in a win for him and the Giants.

Overall Thoughts:

There is nothing quite as stupid as not starting a guy because of the weather report. Lincecum and Billingsley had been preparing for this start for 6 weeks and then they get yanked because of weather!? If it is not raining at the start of the game, then the guy slated to start the game should. If it is raining and you decide to pull him, then he should start the next game and not come out of the bullpen. However, this mistake--which was a mistake no matter what the outcome was--was not Bruce Bochy’s. Larry Baer and Peter McGowen told Bochy the following in the third inning “We need to win this game or we will not sell out opening day so get Lincecum in the game ASAP”. What a joke.

Grading His Performance:

That being said, Tim Lincecum was awesome last night. I promise you that most starting pitchers in this league would have refused to go into an April game in the 4^th inning. (Can you imagine what would have happened if this situation occurred with Zito as the starter!? His head would have exploded). Not only did Lincecum go out there, he pitched well enough to win AND even stayed in the game after the rain delay. His numbers were good (not great) but he found his out pitch when he needed it and that is all you could have asked for given the circumstances. The bases loaded strike out of Martin was especially impressive.

Grade: A

Three Things to Remember:

* The 1^st Pitch
Here are Lincecum’s first pitch stats from last night’s game:

(He threw a first pitch strike to 12 of the 19 batters he faced – 63.2%)

When Lincecum threw a first pitch strike
* Batting Average: .111 or 1 for 9
* Walks: 2
* Sacrifice: 1
* Strike outs: 2
* On-base percentage: .273 or 3 for 11

When Lincecum threw a first pitch ball
* Batting Average: .600 or 3 for 5
* Walks: 2
* Strike outs: 2
* On-base percentage: .714 or 5 for 7

No further explanation needed

* Batting Practice Fastball
One of the “problems” Lincecum has is that he throws his two-seam fastball (usually a pitch used to generate movement and not speed) 95 mph. Most power pitchers throw a four-seam fastball for speed and a two-seam fastball for movement and to change speeds. Since Lincecum uses the two-seam fastball for both speed and movement, he doesn’t have a change of pace fastball. He will acquire one at some point but I would not expect it this year

* Holding Runners
He gets a pass on this one because the runners that did get on were really no threat to steal a base.

Interesting Moment from Yesterday’s Game:
When it was discovered that Lincecum and Billingsley were pulled because of weather, Krukow made the following comment:

“You know these two teams did not make a deal before the game to pull both starting pitchers because these two teams never make deals*”

Hmmmm …

I guess he's right besides the fact that these two teams made the biggest deal in sports history when the Giants agreed to move west with the Dodgers in 1958.

Furthermore …

Later on in the telecast, Larry Baer came on and said that the Dodgers president called him before the game to tell them that there was a chance the game might get rained out.

In plain English this comment means – “we talked to the Dodgers and agreed to not start Lincecum if they agreed to not start Billingsley”

But these teams never make deals so I am sure that didn’t happen.

Until next time

* This quote is far from being word for word but you get the point.

Lincecum Report – Start #1

Welcome to the first installment of the Lincecum Report. Since the Giants are going to have a dismal season, I have decided to focus on one of the bright spots--Tim Lincecum. I will be watching or listening to each one of his starts this season and I will be writing a preparation report before each start so you know what to look for and a recap report that reviews how he did and how he is progressing through the season. Without further ado, here is the first report:

Last Start

(In this section, I will recap Lincecum's last start. A revolutionary title if I do say so myself)

Do you remember his last start? Neither do I. While the Giants front office has made a lot of mistakes, they did get one thing right, and that was shutting down TL at the end of last season. 146 innings was plenty and there was no reason to waste him on a bunch of September call-ups. Needless to say, TL should be fresh for this season.

Pitching Psychology

(In this section, I will give you a glimpse into what a pitcher is thinking before the start)

The first start of the season is always a big one especially for a pitcher who wants to take the next step in his career. The unfortunate thing for TL is that he knows the Giants are a bad offensive team. TL is all too aware of the fact that if he gives up 4 runs he loses. Pitching under those pretenses is difficult for anybody but it can be devastating to a young pitcher’s confidence. He cannot let a few early runs change his game plan or outlook as the game goes on. Of course, this is easier said than done and I am interested to see how his lack of run support affects him as the season moves into June and July.

(How is it possible that we have not read anything about how much the starting pitchers are going to hate the position players by the middle of the season!? The Giants may require two different airplanes to shuttle them around the country by July because of the rift between the two groups.)

Three Things to Remember

(In this section, I will give you three things to remember while watching the game)

* The 1^st Pitch
The first pitch to a batter is the most important pitch of the at bat unless your name is Greg Maddox. TL needs to throw first pitch strikes to be successful.

* Batting Practice Fastball
TL doesn’t throw one and that is a problem. He needs to learn the art of throwing an 86 mph fastball that gets batters of balance and results in ground outs to the short stop. It might take TL two years to learn this strategy but it is worth mentioning at the start of the season. Throwing 96 is awesome but doing it on every pitch is not ideal for both his potential success and his long term durability.

* Holding Runners
Torre is going to test TL and Molina every time he has the opportunity. TL needs to do a better job of holding runners on base or he could be in for a long night (a long season for that matter)

Prediction

(In this section, I will give you my prediction for the start)

TL is going to come out of the gates pressing and over throwing which will result in too many Dodger runs for the Giants to overcome. The final score will match opening day 5-0 Dodgers.

Lincecum’s line:

IP: 6, K: 6, BB: 3, H: 5, ER: 4